Week 18 AI Predictions and Player Props

The Recap

Week 17 was solid with 11 of 16 (69%). Not bad! Lets take a look in at the playoff picture then let’s investigate some player props.

The Playoff Picture

Here’s a quick glance of the playoff scenarios before moving on to some props. 

The AFC Picture

The AFC has 3 spots left for grabs and 5 teams competing for them. First, the Bills sit in the 6-seed but play Miami. If Buffalo wins, they will win the division and be the 2-seed. Miami would fall to the 5 or 6-seed. If Buffalo loses, they could fall to 7 or completely miss the playoffs if things go poorly. This game gets complicated with the weather as it’s currently forecast to be heavy rain and thunderstorms.

The AFC South is still figuring things out with three teams at 9-7. the Jags are technically the 4-seed, the Colts the 7-seed, and the Texans are just outside in 8th place. Since the Colts and Texans play each other, the losing team is guaranteed to be eliminated. The Jags play the Titans in Nashville on Sunday. The weather is expected to be sloppy which pushes things in favor of Derrick Henry.

Pittsburgh is still in the mix with a 9-7 record as well. They have to win and get some help from sloppy AFC South teams or Buffalo to have a chance.

Summary: Buffalo needs to win to be safe.
The winners of the Jaguars, Colts, Texans, Steelers all get their names thrown into a hat to finalize 2 Wild Card spots. Someone from the AFC South will be the 4-seed.

The NFC Picture

The NFC has 2 spots remaining. Tampa Bay is holding on tigh.t for the 4-seed and Green Bay is white-knuckling the 7-seed. Both teams are 8-8. Seattle and New Orleans are on the outside and sit at 8-8 as well.

All 4 teams play an outside opponent – meaning there are no clear-cut elimination games. Winners get tossed into a pot to see who wins through tie-breakers.

 

The NFC East is still interesting with the Cowboys and Eagles needing to play hard this final week. If Dallas wins they get the 2-seed and Philly gets the 5-seed regardless. A Dallas loss and Philly win flips them back to Philly being #2. If both lose, and Detroit wins, then Detroit gets the 2-seed and Dallas falls to 3.

Player Props

Every year the final few weeks have players going for contract bonuses. I’ve put together a list of players who are really close to cashing in. Generally, teams will scheme to get these players a few shots at the final stats needed to trigger a pay day. This translates pretty well to player props.

Offense Incentives and Props

• Joe Mixon needs 1 TD for $250,00 bonus at 10 TDs.
• Darius Slayton needs 5 catches. 
• DeAndre Hopkins needs 11 yards to break 950 for the season and a $750,000 bonus. A boost of 111 yards gets him bumped up to $1 million.
• OBJ needs 5 receptions for $250,000 but needs 2 TDs for another $500,000.
• Austin Eckler needs 110 total yards to trigger $110,000.
  
  Baker Mayfield has realistically maxed 4 of his 5 stat-related incentives. He would have to complete 73 of 73 passes this week to boost his completion percentage enough to reach 10th overall. Jordan Love is in a similar position maxing out 3 of his 4 stat incentives. These two guys are talked about frequently in the media but are not reasonable props.

Defense Incentives and Props

• Jadeveon Clowney needs 0.5 sack more for $750,000.
• Bud Dupree needs 2.0 sacks for $1million.
• Chris Jones needs 0.5 sacks for a $1.25 million pay day.
• Lavonte David needs 0.5 sacks for a $150,000 bonus.
• Jihad Ward needs 1.0 sack for $250,000.

 

Prop Round Up

• Darius Slayton needing 5 catches looks the best as his season has rebounded once Tyrod took over. They will likely pepper him the ball. In the last 3-weeks his targets have been 8,3,6 and receptions have been 4,3,4. This week he goes up against an overly exposed Eagles secondary who may rest some starters depending on how the early games go.
• Mixon needing 1 TD against a Browns team who will be resting players looks decent. Getting into the endzone is dependent on a lot of factors and 
• DeAndre Hopkins to get 11 yards is a gimme.
• OBJ to get 5 receptions is more questionable than you might think. With Tyler Huntley under center and a Steelers team that seems hell bent on getting TJ Watt DPOY there should be tons of pressure in the backfield.
• Defensively I like Atlanta to register a few sacks. They have two guys looking for a few sacks on Derek Carr.
• Lavonte David of the Buccaneers should tee off against whomever starts at QB for Carolina.

 

 

The Picks

Games That Will Play Starters

Houston over Indianapolis
Detroit over Minnesota
Tennessee over Jacksonville **
New England over NY Jets **
New Orleans over Atlanta
Tampa Bay over Carolina
Chicago over Green Bay
Las Vegas over Denver
Philadelphia over NY Giants
Dallas over Washington
Seattle over Arizona
Buffalo over Miami **

Games That Will Rest Starters

Pittsburgh over Baltimore
Cincinnati over Cleveland
LA Chargers over Kansas City
LA Rams over San Francisco


** = weather dependent