Week 17 A.I. Predictions and Playoff Drama

The Round Up

Week 16 was a wash at 8 of 16. But the DNP drama had not yet dropped. It was assumed that DJ Reader would suit up for Cincinnati and CJ Stroud would make it back for Houston. Without those two players the machine correctly flipped. But it was a little too late to get it in.

The whole AFC South just doesn’t seem to want to win the title. Jacksonville lost Lawrence to injury late which makes sense to why they lost. Tennessee doesn’t have the secondary to hang with the Seattle WRs. Houston was running a skeleton crew on offense against a great defense. But it was the Indianapolis meltdown that was inexplainable. They didn’t even look competitive.

But, let’s check back in with the playoff picture

The Hilarious Developments and Playoff Drama

The Bears have developed a 1% chance to make the playoffs! A true miracle! They have been on a tear lately and have clawed their out of the trenches… to just ever so slightly above the trenches. Nice work, guys!

The Chiefs, who were knocking on the door of clinching, just blew open a huge door for the Raiders. Las Vegas, who has essentially been eliminated since week 10 just got an 11% jump in playoff possibility with this past win. They would need to win out and for the Chiefs to lose out to clinch the AFC West which is unlikely.

But, they actually have another path. There is a gaggle of 8-7 teams who are on the struggle bus. Houston, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville are all currently missing a starting quarterback and Vegas plays Indianapolis. A Vegas win would tie many of them at 8-8 and get them ahead with some tie-breakers. They are the true late-entry dark horse, Rich-Strike.

The NFC Playoff Developments

The NFC is looking solid. Four teams have clinched which leaves the 4, 6 and 7 seeds left for grabs.

The 4-Seed

Right now Tampa Bay has an 86% chance of hanging on to the NFC South championship. It’s interesting that they don’t own a single tie-breaker with any divisional opponent yet. They split with Atlanta and still have to finish the series with New Orleans then Carolina.

The wild thing is that the division still has two weeks’ worth of divisional games to settle things. And the three teams still in contention have split every settled series. The one thing Tampa has in its favor is that they have the best divisional and conference records, but even that isn’t enough to punch their ticket.

The easiest way to view the 4-seed is by elimination. If Atlanta and or New Orleans lose this week then they are out and Tampa wins by default. If one wins, then we’ll analyze it next week.

The 6-Seed

The Rams have charged back thanks to the health on the offense. They are one of the hottest teams over the past month and have earned this spot. However, nothing can be simple. A win would bump up their probability, but it wouldn’t seal the deal. The real threat is Green Bay who sits one game back and whom the Rams lost to earlier in the year. A Rams win and a Green Bay loss would clinch their spot. But now they have to deal with Tyrod and a revitalized Giants offense.

The 7-Seed

The Seahawks are sitting pretty one game up with a real easy schedule to finish out the regular season. They lost twice to the Rams, so they need an outright extra win to possibly bump up. Additionally, the two teams nipping at their heels play each other this week. So, either Green Bay or Minnesota will exit after this week and make Seattle a bit safer.

The AFC Developments

This picture is much less settled with only Baltimore and Miami clinching.

Cleveland is virtually a lock for the playoffs with 99% probability, but they could potentially land nearly anywhere from the 1 to 7-seed based on how it all pans out.
They could catch Baltimore and outright take the 1-seed, or the 2-seed in this scenario if Miami leaps them by winning out.
The 5-seed is most probable as making up two games or losing two games is unlikely.
The 6-seed is possible is the Bills leap the Browns.
The 7-seed is possible if the Browns lose out and any 8-7 team (except for the Steelers) wins out.
The only scenario they miss out is in a possible tie-breaker with the Steelers.

Either way, this leaves 4 slots up for grabs.

The 3-Seed

This will likely go to the AFC West. The Chiefs are still the favorites, but the Raiders have hope and some winnable games. The Broncos are going full Flowers for Algernon with extra manufactured QB drama.

The 4-Seed

Someone has to win the AFC South. Against all efforts, there will be a winner. All the 8-7 teams are beat to hell but the Colts appear to be the healthiest and likeliest to jump up. Maybe they should just give it to the Browns who beat everyone in this division.

The 6-Seed

The Bills are completing a fantastic comeback and sit soundly at 6th. One win will clinch a spot as long as 2 or more of the 8-7 teams lose this week. They could jump up a bit but it would come down to winning week 18 if Miami losses against the Ravens.

The 7-Seed

Currently held by the Colts but this is honestly wide-open. There are 5 teams in serious contention with 2 more waiting in the wings. Strangely, none of these 8-7 competitors play each other which leaves little direction or potential clarification. Almost half the AFC is eligible for the 7-seed right now.

The Picks List for Week 17

Cleveland over NY Jets

Dallas over Detroit

Buffalo over New England
Chicago over Atlanta
Las Vegas over Indianapolis
LA Rams over NY Giants
Philadelphia over Arizona
New Orleans over Tampa Bay
San Francisco over Washington
Carolina over Jacksonville
Baltimore over Miami
Tennessee over Houston
Seattle over Pittsburgh
Denver over LA Chargers
Kansas City over Cincinnati
Green Bay over Minnesota