Week 6 AI Picks and the Rise of Variance

Week 5 was a mixed bag. We went 4 of 13 which is not good enough, but the Pick of the Week hit solid. The Cardinals upset looked good until the James Conner injury. Then they abandoned the run game while the Bengals sat in nickel and dime and feasted on turnovers. The Vikings upset looked good until the Jefferson injury and ref intervention. Oh well. You can’t predict injuries and this variance didn’t swing in our favor.

Team Variance

This past weekend I was watching the Titans fall apart and thought to myself – It’s week 5 and this team has no identity yet. Then I watched the Packers fall apart on Monday night and wondered if this season has more variance in team performance than last year.

Variance, in practical terms, is how much each team’s performance varies from week to week. For picking winners we want a nice low variance, so we know what we’re getting.

In technical terms, variance is the measure of dispersion or variability in a data set. If you put all the points on a graph then the variance would measure the spread of the points. 

So, I went about adding the offense totals and defense totals from my machine to create one team score for each week of the season. With one clean number for each team for each week, I could run a simple variance calculation to see if teams were all over the place or if I was going crazy.

Compared to last year’s first 5 weeks, the 2023 variance is 18% higher. That makes it that much harder for bettors to lock in. As an example of this effect, check out this website. It shows public betting trends. Look at how murky the public feels about the teams mentioned below.

 

Top 5 Highest Variance

The five highest variances belong to Tennessee, Las Vegas, New Orleans, New England, and Kansas City.

These five teams are rather frustrating to rely on. The ups and downs are more extreme than many other teams that flip the script weekly.

 

Tennessee has no real identity on offense. They seem to change it up each week.

Las Vegas is picking up steam but they look solid or awful with no in-between.

New Orleans looks confused on offense with tons of weapons and no clear way to use them.

New England is lost.

Kansas City might keep racking up wins, but they are not consistent on offense.

 

Top 5 lowest Variance

The top five lowest variances belong to Dallas, Baltimore, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Jacksonville

All of these teams are just above average and excel at one or two aspects of the game. They consistently hit the mark whether they win or lose, but at least they are consistent. These teams also seem to be lopsided with a strong offense or defense, but not both. 

 

Dallas has a weak offense but continues to rely on its defense even after the beatdown from San Francisco.

Baltimore is well-rounded but finds new ways to hamstring themselves.

Minnesota is underwhelming in all regards but they play up to their potential each week.

Pittsburgh struggles on offense but the defense keeps them in games.

Jacksonville can’t seem to get out of their own way on the path to dominating a weak division.

 

Pick of the Week

Indianapolis

Minshew Magic is growing in Indiana. After taking over last week he posted the 6th best QBR, the best Yards per Attempt, and the 3rd best Adjusted Yards Gained per Attempt. Now he leads a stabilized Colts team, with a full week of preparation, against the Jaguars who are coming back from across the pond.

The Colts’ defense lines up well against the Jaguars to limit Etienne and the quick passing attack. It appears that Shaq Leonard is back as well which shores up the middle.

The Jaguars struggle against sudden changes in opponent personnel and have a streak of losing to former Jaguar QBs. Additionally, they have to deal with the jet lag of coming back from a +5 hour time difference.

 

 

The Full List

KC over Denver     

• This game might be closer than expected.

Baltimore over Tennessee
Washington over Atlanta
San Francisco over Cleveland
New Orleans over Houston
Miami over Carolina
Seattle over Cincinnati
Minnesota over Chicago
Indianapolis over Jacksonville
Las Vegas over New England
Arizona over L.A. Rams
Detroit over Tampa Bay
Philadelphia over N.Y. Jets

Buffalo over N.Y. Giants
Dallas over L.A. Chargers