Week 15 AI Predictions for Week 15 and the Playoffs

Week 14 was weird. Teams who needed wins for playoff life dropped the ball. Most of the underdogs took a win. We successfully picked 8 of 14 which is ok given the crazy nature of things but there was a lot that couldn’t be accounted for. Most of it had to do with a slew of injuries and bad weather that tipped the scales.

• Zappe shocked a deceased offense back to life.
• Detroit literally melted.
• Houston lost Stroud and it’s top 2 WRs (66% of offensive production).
• Herbert was injured early on.
• Tua played in weather below 50 degrees.

Just crushing, insurmountable things for some teams.

Last week I talked about teams who are looking up heading down. In hindsight I probably cursed most of them with optimism. In fact, all my upswing calls – Green Bay, Houston, LA Rams, and Denver – lost, while my downswing teams -Buffalo, Baltimore, and Minnesota – took home wins.

Good thing one single week does not indicate a trend. But it did get me thinking about putting numbers to the situation. And what better situation than the playoff picture?!

I used the machine to look out into the future for the playoff contenders and put a win probability to each matchup. The numbers listed are the probabilities for achieving a playoff spot.
In the AFC it looks like 10 wins will be pretty safe for a playoff berth. But in the NFC 9 wins and some tiebreakers will be deciding factors.

AFC Playoff Probabilities

1 Baltimore 0.99
2 Kansas City 0.96
3 Miami 0.92
4 Jacksonville 0.79
5 Cleveland 0.75
6 Denver 0.72
7 Buffalo 0.71

Indianapolis 0.68
Houston 0.64
Cincinnati 0.61
Pittsburgh 0.59

The top of the playoff bracket is mostly set. The real question is who will get the 1-seed. Baltimore is up 1 game on the Dolphins and 2 games on seeds 3-5. This lead shields them from the fact they still have to play 4 playoff contenders. Miami is in the middle but plays 3 strong teams in the final 3 weeks. Kansas City is 2 games back, but they play 4 dud teams to finish off the season. This makes them a dark horse to run the table again.

 

The Wild Card seeds are going to be hotly contested as less than 10% probability separates 4-7. Cleveland gets a bump due to a weaker schedule, but their offensive capabilities make it hard to trust them down the stretch. Denver has the Chargers, Patriots, and Raiders to round out the regular season which should be a windfall into the postseason. Buffalo splits 2 tough games and 2 easy games but are more reliable to snag one more win when it’s needed most.

Indy, Houston, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati all miss the cut this time as they generally play each other. One or two surprise wins could boost them out of the basement, but right now it looks unlikely.

NFC Playoff Probabilities

1 San Francisco 1.00
2 Philadelphia 0.99
3 Detroit 0.81
4 Atlanta 0.66
5 Dallas 0.99
6 Minnesota 0.62
7 Green Bay 0.58

LA Rams 0.47
Tampa Bay 0.44
New Orleans 0.43
Seattle 0.42

San Francisco has already clinched a playoff spot. Even if they lose all 4 games, they could only tie the Rams or Seahawks – two teams with whom they have the tiebreaker. They’re in. Philly gets the edge for the 2-seed as they play a dud schedule to finish the year. Still having to play the Giants twice must be a good feeling. Dallas has a tougher schedule against the Bills and Dolphins who will be desperate for wins, but they are a lock for the 2 or 5-seed. Detroit is likely safe at 3 as they can duke it out with the Vikings twice in the final 3 weeks to settle the division.

 

Seeds 4,6,7 are wide open. Atlanta might win the South by default as they have the easiest remaining schedule (thanks Panthers!) Tampa Bay and New Orleans both play tougher schedules and could knock each other out. Minnesota and Green Bay are about equal, but week 14 performances did not inspire confidence in either squad.

 

The NFC West teams who have not yet clinched are sweating it out. The Rams have the easiest path, but the 49ers in week 18 might be a wall that they have to get through for the 7-seed. Seattle is finally past the 49er schedule sandwich, but they are running right into Philadelphia. Another loss will likely put them too far behind to recover.

The Full List of Picks for Week 15

Let’s step back and focus on this week. Lots of injury news needs to be digested before kickoff.

QB concerns

Las Vegas over LA Chargers
Cincinnati over Minnesota
Indianapolis over Pittsburgh
Chicago over Cleveland
Tennessee over Houston
Baltimore over Jacksonville

Healthier Matchups

Detroit over Denver
Green Bay over Tampa Bay
Miami over NY Jets
Kansas City over New England
New Orleans over NY Giants
Atlanta over Carolina
LA Rams over Washington
San Francisco over Arizona
Dallas over Buffalo
Philadelphia over Seahawks