The Recap
Week 15 took us 10 of 16 (62.5%) which I consider average. Tennessee blew it in overtime. Green Bay blew it from the coin toss. Atlanta blew it in the Red Zone (especially in the 4th quarter). Dallas didn’t show up and Philly’s secondary blew it. That’s how it goes sometimes.
The Playoff Picture Grows Clearer
Last week I looked at 22 potential playoff teams. Only San Francisco had officially clinched a spot which left 13 playoff seeds up for grabs. With one more week complete the field grows tighter.
Guaranteed Playoff Spots and 1-Seeds
Three new teams solidified a playoff spot. San Francisco had nothing to worry about but were the benefactors of a Philly loss. They are very likely to be the NFC #1 seed. Philadelphia and Dallas both lost but still clinched a spot due to enough other contenders losing as well. Baltimore is the only AFC team to officially clinch a playoff spot making the AFC playoffs likely to run through the east coast.
Detroit Lions WR Jameson Williams (9) – Nathan Ray Seebeck/USA TODAY Sports
Three teams are sitting at the edge of officially clinching a spot. Detroit is 0.99 and will need 3 losses and some outside circumstances to keep them out. They are essentially a lock.
Miami is another 0.99 probability, but they play Dallas, Baltimore, and a desperate Buffalo team. Two losses will mean trouble in Week 18 but even worst-case realistic scenarios would have Miami in a Wild Card spot.
Kansas City is at 0.98 because Denver is within striking distance if everything goes awry. Denver has New England, LA Chargers, and Las Vegas left. That’s a pretty soft schedule. But Kansas City has a fairly soft schedule as well with one concern being Cincinnati week 17.
Biggest Playoff Falls
Houston Texans LB Blake Cashman (53) – Brett Davis/USA TODAY Sports
Four teams greatly hurt themselves last week with an ill-timed loss. Atlanta has the distinction of the biggest fall with a whopping 0.55 fall in probability of making the playoffs. They now only have an 11% chance of getting in through winning the NFC South.
Pittsburgh plummeted 0.53 in probability leaving them with an abysmal 6% chance to get in. They need to everything outside of their control to go exactly right for them.
Denver fell 0.48 but remains in position to catch the Chiefs or leapfrog some of the 8-6 teams if they falter.
Green Bay is the last rock to fall off the cliff with a 0.41 drop in probability. They now have to win out and hope some of the 7-7 teams split while others lose out.
Biggest Playoff Risers
Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (13) – Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Tampa Bay won week 15 with a crucial victory. They gained 0.29 and moved into the division lead with some additional positive circumstances. Tampa is currently tied with New Orleans but hold the tie-breaker, the better record within the division, and conference record. Both teams have a tough week 16 matchup, then face each other, then finish off with an eliminated divisional opponent. Tampa would have to drop all 3 games to really risk losing the 4-seed.
Cleveland got lucky with a failed Hail Mary in their favor. But they still rose 0.15 to an awesome 90% chance to see the post-season. The remaining schedule of Houston, NY Jets, and Cincinnati feels pretty safe as they would need to lose 2 to really get knocked out.
Finally, Seattle pulled off what was thought to be impossible AND with their backup QB. Pretty impressive. Beating Philly only added 0.12 to their playoff probability but it keeps them in it. With the offensively unstable trio of Tennessee, Pittsburgh, and Arizona to finish the year, it appears Seattle weathered the worst part of their schedule and found calmer waters. With an easier schedule and better health Seattle is looking to be in a good spot.
The Picks
La Rams over New Orleans
Cincinnati over Pittsburgh
Buffalo over LA Chargers
Indianapolis over Atlanta
Seattle over Tennessee
Detroit over Minnesota
Washington over NY Jets
Green Bay over Carolina
Houston over Cleveland
Jacksonville over Tampa Bay
Chicago over Arizona
Dallas over Miami
Denver over New England
Kansas City over Las Vegas
Philadelphia over NY Giants
San Francisco over Baltimore
