The Tuli Tuipulotu Problem

Disclaimer: Draft analysts are forced to be as optimistic of people as you can find. With that said, we also share the want to express our opinions on a player, and when those opinions run opposite to the public discourse it comes off as a direct attack on the player. I hope for nothing but success for Tuli Tuipulotu and that he can prove me wrong. This piece is simply based on my analysis of his game tape and physical profile that juxtaposes the perception other analysts have put out on this specific prospect. Nothing personal; just doing my job.

Background

Tuli Tuipulotu was one of the most productive defensive players in the 2022 college football season. The Trojan led the country in total sacks(13.5) and was 7th in tackles for loss(22.0). Looking at the reported measurements of Tuli Tuipulotu on USC’s website would lead you to believe he was a physical freak at defensive end.

He was measured in at 6 foot 4 inches and 290 pounds! To put that into perspective, potential top EDGE player Will Anderson Jr from Alabama is measured in at 6’4″ 243. Potential first-round defensive tackle Calijah Kancey from Pittsburgh weighs in 10 pounds lighter than what Tuipulotu was reported to be measured at.

With the style of play he presented on film, this would make Tuli one of the best athletes the position would have ever seen, combing his weight with movement unimaginable for his size. During the season, these measurables combined with the production had analysts talking about his name near the top of the second round. However, in early March, the NFL Combine invited Tuipulotu into town and presented major question marks for evaluators of his film.

The Combine Measurements

The NFL Combine is a useful tool for NFL prospect evaluators. It presents a neutral ground of public information so that all teams and individuals can work on an equal playing field to understand what a player can bring. It also is important to be able to identify where some teams have been exaggerating their player’s measurables on the team roster.

The most popular one coming into this year’s Combine was the height of Alabama quarterback Bryce Young. However, a sneaky important measurement was going to take place when it came to Tuli Tuipulotu, and unfortunately, it didn’t help clear up much but rather opened more questions.

Tuli Tuipulotu measured 6’3″ and 266 pounds. This was a decrease in his billed weight by 24 pounds! In addition, Tuipulotu measured in with arms at 32 1/4 inches. Not only can we now use this information and apply it to the skills he showed on tape, but sites such as MockDraftable are able to compare players to historical records based on their measurables. Tuipulotu’s web presents its own questions that are intriguing to pick through.

First off, Tuli Tuipulotu has been listed as a defensive interior player in MockDraftable’s database, as they assumed that a player meant to be his size would be played as a defensive tackle. Luckily, the site allows for comparisons to overall defensive linemen and that is what I will be using to get the numbers and comparisons when it comes to the all-important weight that we have discussed.

Looking at all defensive linemen, Tuipulotu places in the 25th percentile. This is taking into account all defensive tackles and ends, but for reference, his original 290 would have had him placed in the 54th percentile. Moving to arm length doesn’t help as Tuipulotu places in the 15th percentile amongst defensive lineman.

Watching the Tape

With the understanding of where Tuipulotu is as an athlete, we can put his film into context. There are two scenarios that I can see these dating points fitting into with his film and neither is positive. However, I would like to talk about some of the pros I did see when reviewing his games vs. Washington St (2022), Utah (2022), and Notre Dame (2022).

The Positives

Despite what I will say later Tuipulotu did exhibit some good snap timing to get into blockers or the backfield before lineman can react. In addition, he was asked to play a variety of different positions and alignments, such as Wide 9 DE, 3 Tech DT, and off-ball linebacker. When playing as a linebacker, he did not look lost in space when flowing to the ball or in coverage, so a potential move to a 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL is a realistic possibility for him.

He did have really good production and some of that came from him not giving up on plays with a good motor and understanding of where he was supposed to be in the called defense.

Scenario 1: The USC Measurement

The first scenario that comes from putting the different measurements into Tuipulotu’s film is that he played all of the 2022 season at 290 before cutting weight for the NFL Combine. This isn’t the most out-there idea, as many guys will do this to more properly fit into the molds of players that are typical in the league. They will also cut weight to perform better athletically and drop time in multiple events. This could easily be the case for Tuli and he was just proficient enough to lose around 24 pounds in preparation.

The problem that arises with this scenario is twofold. Firstly, his play on tape was not indicative of a 290-pound player. Lining up at the Wide 9 or at off-ball LB when weighing 290 is impressive. However, the given aspects that a player of that size should give you were not present. A 290-pound defensive end should be able to move around offensive tackles with strong hands and power.

Tuipulotu did not stand out with his power but more for his ability to beat blockers across the face with surprising lateral mobility. Additionally, his core strength was lacking, showing up in his failure to drop weight and not be moved in the run game by offensive tackles.

The second issue of this measurement ideology is the idea that he is no longer at 290 pounds. If a team saw something they really liked in his game that I may have missed, they now need to throw that out since he is no longer in the same stratosphere of his playing size. We have seen in the past with players like AJ Epenesa that if a player is unsure what weight he will be playing at for games, there is a stunt in their production and development early on.

Unless a team is going to experiment at his weight, trying to get him back to that 285-290 range, then immediate impact from Tuipulotu should not be counted on. If they do decide to draft him to play at 266, then he will potentially have a completely different playing style than his 2022 tape presents. Thus the team is essentially drafting a player who has no tape on them.

Scenario 2: The Combine Measurement

The second scenario puts Tuli Tuipulotu’s season under the lens of understanding that he played closer to his recorded 266-270 range from the Combine. We talked about his lack of power in the previous scenario and that does not go away with this understanding. However, it is more reasonable than if he weighed in at 290. What does not get explained away, and in fact becomes worse, is his lack of high-end athletic traits on tape.

He does have that good lateral mobility, but as a player who is around 260 Tuipulotu lacks a lot of explosiveness and bend. To be a successful EDGE rusher, a player needs to exhibit different ways of beating tackles. Whether this is with technical moves, power, speed, or a combination of the above. Tuli already lacks a large bag of moves as he doesn’t have the power to set counters up from, but he also showed a lack of overall explosiveness and bend to threaten tackles with a speed element either.

A lack of speed isn’t uncommon from 260-270 pound EDGE defenders, however, the understanding is that this was known by the team when they were drafted. If teams believed Tuipulotu played at 290 during the season and then dropped all this weight, they might be under the impression that the struggles with speed and bend would be resolved. However, if this scenario proves to be true, there will be almost no difference in this and he will have the same amount of bend and explosiveness that he showed while at USC.

Opposite to the problem in scenario one, where a team will be drafting somebody with no useful film, here his film is all too true to who he is as an NFL player. Teams will see some areas of his game that, with a drop in weight it can improve and will draft him hoping to play him at 260 and boosting said aspects. However, the truth is he doesn’t have as much room to grow as believed and now that team as drafted a player who will not be able to improve his bend and explosiveness in the way they anticipated.

Summary

All in all, Tuli Tuipulotu is a prospect that, if I were a NFL general manager, I would let another team try and figure out. The discrepancy in his measurables from USC and the Combine scares me when it comes to evaluating where he can grow as a player in the NFL. This, in addition to some film I was not too overly impressed with, leaves me with too many question marks overall. I personally have Tuipulotu graded as a 6th-round player.

I see him as an EDGE defender who is a pure project, one that needs to add weight and throughout his first year with the team’s strength coach. I project him to either add weight and play as a 5 tech defensive end or stick at 260 and play as an off-the-ball 3-4 outside rush linebacker. All this to say, I believe the hype by other draft coverage sites has been too high, and this piece should serve as a warning to fans of the team that selects Tuipulotu in the first two days of the draft. Temper your expectations.