The Washington Commanders vs the 2023 NFC East
Even the most positive of Washington fans have to admit that the biggest task for this team headed into 2023 is their daunting strength of schedule. Based solely on last season’s records – which can be misleading – The Commanders face the eighth most difficult strength of schedule in the NFL. A large part of this is their division which sent three teams to the divisional round of the NFL playoffs last season. Washington likely isn’t competing with Philadelphia or Dallas to win the division, but they could surpass the Giants and make a wild card bid with some improvements.
Eagles’ Tight End Dallas Goedert (88), Quarterback Jalen Hurts (1), and Wide Receiver Devonta Smith (6) – Matt Slocum/AP Photo
Philadelphia Eagles
The most talented team in the NFC East is the defending NFC champions. Philadelphia presents a roster that lacks holes outside of lesser-value positions. One could make the argument that the Eagles have the best defensive line, wide receiver group, and cornerback duo in the NFL. So where does Washington find a way to repeat its upset victory against the Eagles in 2022?
The answer is completeness on the defense combined with a quick game approach on offense. The transition to a west coast offense will ask Sam Howell to distribute the ball to a trio of talented receivers that had their way with Philly’s corners a year ago.
Defensively, Washington has the horses up front and in the secondary to keep up with Philadelphia. Two of the best defensive performances against the Eagles in 2022 came from the Commanders. Most importantly, Jack Del Rio’s approach using Jamin Davis and Kam Curl to attack Philadelphia’s perimeter RPO game became a model for future teams.
Washington is not nearly as talented as the Eagles. But, their brand of football matches up well.
Win-Loss Prediction 1-1
Jan 22, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) warms up before a NFC divisional round game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas is the most difficult team to predict outside of Washington in this division. They’re coming off a year where they saw slight regression defensively due to an evening of turnover luck. Dak Prescott had one of the worst seasons of his lengthy career, but still showed flashes of a highly productive franchise quarterback.
Recent history has never painted Dallas as an easy matchup for Washington. However, under Ron Rivera, the Commanders are 3-3 against the Cowboys. This has been a difficult matchup to project in the McCarthy/Rivera years due to mass injuries in 2019 for Dallas and 2020 for Washington. Last season a more talented Dallas team controlled the first matchup, only to then struggle against Washington late in the season.
Two factors affect my prediction. For one, Washington’s offensive line has performed consistently poorly against the Cowboys’ defensive front. But also, Mike McCarthy’s move to full-time play-caller gives a strategic edge to Washington’s defense.
Win-Loss Prediction 1-1
New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones(8) throwing the ball against the Dallas Cowboys AP Photo/ Tony Gutierrez
New York Giants
The two-game stretch between New York and Washington last season ultimately decided which of these teams would go to the playoffs. Though the Giants obtained the only win between the two games, it could be argued the better team lost.
Washington outgained the Giants by a significant edge in both games. This is a large predictor of game outcomes and often swings game spreads the next weekend. Multiple factors led to what was an eventual tie and loss for Washington.
Washington’s defense did an excellent job of limiting Daniel Jones and the Giants in both games. The lone big play in the passing game came in the first matchup after Benjamin St-Juste left due to injury. Outside of that drive, the Giants’ biggest scoring output came on a short drive off a fumble.
The same thing occurred in the second matchup with Kayvon Thibodeaux’s scoop and score on the goal line. Daniel Jones did engineer one other touchdown drive, but ultimately off the back of conservative play. Washington’s inability to play conservatively due to Taylor Heinicke’s style of play – combined with a beat-up offensive line – was punished.
New York made the best of these two matchups with a Daniel Jones average depth of target of 5.8 and 3.9 (three point nine!) respectively. It speaks to the weakness of the current NFC that these two teams battled for a playoff spot. I view the squads very evenly heading into 2023.
Win-Loss Prediction 1-1
So overall I have Washington going 3-3 in the NFC East this year. Yes, I understand that this is a bullish prediction, but I’m not often bullish on this team. It is worth noting this team went 2-3-1 in the NFC East last season. They also managed an 8-8-1 record with the league’s fourth most difficult strength of schedule. I like the additions this team has made and believe they can replicate that performance.
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