Week 9 AI Picks and Time Changes

The hard part about writing an article for Thursday is the time of the week. Some things change by Sunday. For instance, Mahomes and Michael Thomas are ill or Bijan Robinson is a late scratch. Maybe I’ll start an update on Sundays to hone it in.

But, as far as what I have posted, Week 8 led to a 50/50 call. It should be better.

Time Changes

This weekend we’ll all be setting the clocks back an hour as daylight savings time ends. While a one-hour time change messes with our daily routines and generally makes us feel messed up for a week, a 3+ hour time change can really impact athletic performance. In 2007 this article helped objectively establish that athletic performance is best at certain times each day.

There has been a long-held belief that West Coast teams struggle to travel to the east coast. But, with long-held beliefs come thoroughly inspected angles.

Changing a routine 1-2 hours isn’t too stressful on the body, but when a team goes to Europe, they have to account for a much greater time change. Germany offers the unique challenge of a 5-hour time difference relative to the east coast. A quick note – Germany has ended Daylight Savings Time on Oct 29th while America isn’t until November 5th. So, this one-week gap makes a very specific time change between the Eastern Time Zone Miami Dolphins (+5 hours) and the Central Time Zone Kansas City Chiefs. (+6 hours)

The general rule for acclimation to the jet lag is to get 1 full day for every hour of change. Some teams believe in the rule of 1 day, while others try alternative methods like sleep doctors, supplements, and phase sleep & light to the target destination time.

Each team tries different methods, but the one that tends to work best is flying over earlier. So far this year the team to travel first has won 3 of 3 games. The Jaguars left a few hours earlier than the Falcons. They stayed a whole week then beat the Bills. The Ravens departed 3 days earlier and looked much fresher and more focused. 

Dating back to 2021, the team who departed first won 9 of 10 games. I’m working on a database for all travel times back further, but it currently looks like trend. This trend leads to the….

Pick of the Week

Miami Dolphins over Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs -1.5

Miami is a solid team that is rolling. Their only two losses came to teams who had a heavy, effective pass rush. The Chiefs blitz a lot, but they only pressure the QB about 80% of those blitzes. That means they take a guy out of coverage who does nothing. Tua has grown to beat the blitz. He only has an average of 2.1 seconds in the pocket (31st) but has 10 completed passes 40+ yards (1st), and 11 sacks taken (T-2nd fewest for starting QBs). So, he’s getting pressured but getting the ball out very well.

The Chiefs are a bit of a mystery right now. Most people are writing off last week as an outlier, but Denver played well and appeared to finally execute a plan. Getting in Mahomes face led to rushed plays and turnovers. Miami has been generating QB pressure on more attempts than just blitzes. That means the guys up front are beating blocks and they can sink an extra DB or LB into coverage which will help blanket Kelce and disrupt the offense.

Both teams are heading into a Bye Week, so why is Miami the underdog here?

And, most importantly, Miami left for Frankfurt on Monday which gives them 6 days to adjust to their 5-hour difference. Kansas City is leaving on Thursday – giving them 2 days to adjust to their 6-hour delay. That won’t feel good.

Full Pick List

This machine assumes consistent performance. But this week has some massive changes. Only 6 games will have their starting QBs and coaches:

Baltimore over Seattle
Tampa Bay over Houston
New Orleans over Chicago
Indianapolis over Carolina
Philadelphia over Dallas
N.Y. Jets over L.A. Chargers

The remaining games all have complications that don’t project well.

 

Tennessee vs Pittsburgh

• Will Levis makes his first start. Was his 133 QBR and 4 TD performance a fluke?
• Can Kenny Pickens finish a game, or will Trubisky get playing time?  More importantly, Minkah Fitzpatrick will be out against a team that is suddenly excited to throw the ball over the middle.

 

Minnesota vs Atlanta

• Jaren Hall will likely get the start at QB for the Viking, but Josh Dobbs might see some work.
• Heinike is the new starting QB for the Falcons.

 

L.A. Rams vs Green Bay

• Stafford has a questionable thumb injury. Even if he plays, he might not be able to throw as hard as normal.

 

Washington vs Patriots

• The Washington defense was already bad as they were ranked around 25th in most categories. Losing two pieces to trades can’t be that disastrous to overall performance, but it might shake chemistry and team morale pretty hard.

 

Arizona vs Cleveland

• Murray is being teased as though he might be back. But it seems preparations are being made for Clayton Tune to start this week.
• Watson is in the same boat. He’s practicing again but uncommitted to starting this week. P.J. Walker might make the start again.

 

N.Y. Giants vs Las Vegas

• Daniel Jones is officially back.
• Aidan O’Connell has been promoted to starter. It seems that the team is really behind him, but the changes on the coaching staff might throw a wrench in his true debut.

 

Buffalo vs Cincinnati

• Josh Allen popped up with an injury to his throwing shoulder. It’s expected that he plays but remains to be seen if he’ll be limited.