Week 8 AI Picks and Teams on the Downswing

Another wild week is in the books and another week that didn’t pan out as expected. We seem to swing back and forth each week which makes sense as nearly every team in the NFL dealing with question marks. This season is still up for grabs, but things are starting to clarify as some teams ride the upswing and some teams continue on the downswing.

I took until week 7 but six teams have posted overall rankings of improving, or worsening, outcomes 3 weeks in a row. Both offense and defense had to improve, or slide, week over week to qualify.

 

Teams on the Upswing

Baltimore

Baltimore started hot but faltered due to some injuries, bad plays, and big drops. But now that Baltimore is getting healthier, Lamar and the offense are finally playing up to their high expectations. Now that this team is healthy, they cleaned up the dropped passes and found some success running the ball with Edwards. As a result, they’re now pushing for a top spot in league power rankings.

 

Kansas City

The offense is finally reaching its stride and meeting expectations. For most of the season, they’ve been average in most stats, much to the disappointment of the fantasy owners. But they’re in a stretch against Minnesota, Denver, and the L.A. Chargers – a group of defenses that were hanging around bottom 10. There are 6 more games on the schedule against teams of this caliber sprinkled with some tough opponents which should keep the swing on the upper half.

 

Minnesota

Kirk Cousins has been playing lights out, but it wasn’t enough to carry the team to wins. Even with injuries to the offense, Minnesota is still putting up points and competing. The defense has made strides to catch up. Specifically, the secondary has gone from league worst to middle-of-the-pack with a big assist from a non-stop blitz. Minnesota is blitzing 53% of defensive plays. They don’t always get hands on the QB, but it’s enough to rattle the opposing offense as demonstrated against San Francisco.  

 

Teams on the downswing

Detroit

Detroit appears to be on a slide, but they’ve also played increasingly difficult opponents. They appear to be slightly better than average in the sense that they beat the bad teams, play tough against the average teams, and fall hard to the good teams. Lucky for them, they have a lot of bad teams left on their schedule. With 7 weaker teams and 3 stronger teams (The Vikings twice) in the last few weeks who might rest players, Detroit has big potential to right the ship and swing back up.

 

New Orleans

They looked like they got it together against New England but have since fallen off. Poor play from the offense has sunk several games that could have been wins. The potential is there, but turnovers and penalties are killing this team. They have great potential, but they can’t seem to put it together when they need to. With a mixed bag of tough and easy games left on the schedule, they should be pushing 8-9.

 

Las Vegas

A series of quarterback injuries have thoroughly disrupted this team. They have the 3rd lowest Adjusted Passing Yards per Attempt which is stifling the entire offense. Basically, they are throwing it short. So, opposing defenses can play tight to the line of scrimmage which disrupts the running and passing game. The QB carousel is making matters worse as no one seems to be able to take a shot down field and stretch the defense. Jacobs is bottled and Adams is reigned in. This is one that probably won’t get much better this season. 

 

Pick of the Week

L.A. Rams over Dallas

The Dallas Cowboys will drop this game. It’s a trap.

Mike McCarthy has taken the stance that winning division games is the way to the playoffs. He focuses all of the team’s time and energy into the Giants, Commanders, and especially the Eagles.

Philadelphia has a gauntlet coming up that consists of back-to-back divisional games. First, the Commanders, who always play Philly tougher than expected, then Dallas.

 

The Cowboys are licking their chops at the chance to take on a beat-up and exhausted Eagles team. They are 100% looking ahead at this matchup but they are not good enough to cruise over a “lesser opponent.” Last year Dallas wobbled against Houston and Jacksonville before the Eagles game. Even this season, the Cowboys took Arizona lightly and got smacked. This is set up to be a repeat.

 

The Rams do not have a stifling defense, but they have been solid against the run and at getting into the backfield. That should be enough to disrupt the Dallas offense. They also have a top-10 offense that is superior to Dallas in every statistical category. They demand more respect than they are getting.

Full Pick List

Buffalo over Tampa Bay
Philadelphia over Washington
Indianapolis over New Orleans
Jacksonville over Pittsburgh
Houston over Carolina
Miami over New England
Green Bay over Minnesota
L.A. Rams over Dallas
N.Y Jets over N.Y. Giants
Cleveland over Seattle
Kansas City over Denver
San Francisco over Cincinnati
Baltimore over Arizona
Detroit over Las Vegas