Week 7 AI Picks and New Era of Defense

Week 6 was the 1/3rd mark for the season so it’s time for some reflection – particularly focused on defense.

If you’ve been following along at home, you would know we are 52 games correct out of 89 total calls. In other words, we are 58.42% accurate so far this season. We’re in the black, but it needs to be better.

 

Room for Improvements

In the preseason I wrote about how we’re in an era where passing is king. But after 6 weeks there are very few high-flying teams but crazy high defensive statistics. It looks like we’re entering a new Defensive Era.

 

The first clue that something is changing is the sticky fact that the best-scoring NFC South team is Carolina who sits at 0-6. They figured out how to score points since the preseason, but it hasn’t meant much because they are not good enough to make up for a soft defense.
They are 28th in overall defense – 32nd in rush defense, 31st in tackling, 24th in coverage, but a respectable 12th in pass rush.

This alone challenges the idea that offenses are driving the game. Right now they’re running scared.

 

 

The Defense and QB Pressure

It seems like QBs are getting rushed, hit, sacked, and injured at crazy rates this year. Well, it turns out they are. The Sack Rates are the highest they’ve been in 80 years and are up 13% from last year. In terms of raw number of sacks, 2022 the year ended with 1297. The all-time record for highest league sack totals came in 1984 which was 1313. In 2023 we already have 495 sacks which puts us on pace for a record crushing 1485.

This increase in sacks follows a reasonable trend. For the past few years, the AFC has had some of the top quarterbacks in the league. This year, the AFC has some of the top pass rush to counter them. The Bills, Chiefs, Jets, Browns, and Dolphins make 5 of the top 7 teams in terms of QB pressures. The Bills, Ravens, Dolphins, and Chargers are currently the top 4 in total sacks.

 

The Defense and the Passing Game

One of the crucial stats I calculate is called the Killer Stat. It’s the offensive passing yards gained divided by defensive passing yards allowed. Most years we have a range of +4 to -4. For example, Philadelphia and Kansas City hovered around +3.5 while Tennessee and Las Vegas finished at -3.75. Typically, teams above +2.3 go to the playoffs.

This year the spread is only +0.5 to -0.5. Miami and San Francisco are sitting at +0.5 while New York Giants are in the cellar at -0.5. Miami and San Francisco can throw it, but they also give up tons of yards. The Giants can barely pass and give up a good number of yards. The spread of the passing game has consolidated intensely across the league.

 

The Defense and Fresh Perspective

Something I did not realize until this week is that there are 14 Defensive Coordinators who changed teams this year. And that number rises to 22 Coordinators who have changed teams since 2022. About two-thirds of the league’s defensive minds have turned over in the past 15 months. Dividends are finally starting to pay off as these defenses are catching up and shutting down the young gunslinging QBs.

 

The offenses are getting disrupted by the pressure and improved coverage which has led to fewer expected points so far this season. In fact, the Under has hit 60% of the time this season. In week 6 the Under hit in 12 of 15 games – the most of any week since 1991.

 

So, what do we do to survive this brave new defense-based world? We adapt. Since defenses are dominating the game right now, we add weight to the defensive measures within the machine. After playing around with a simple adjusted value, I found a weight of 10% adds… wait for it… 13% accuracy to this season’s predictions.

 

Boom. A fresh perspective on an old game. Defense is back, baby!

 

Pick of the Week

This week I’ll give three games that are highlighted by the modification to the defensive weight within the machine.

 

New Orleans over Jacksonville

New Orleans has an underrated defense while Jacksonville has a QB who will be less mobile than usual. They should be all over the backfield.

 

Detroit over Baltimore

Detroit also has an underrated defense and an explosive offense. Baltimore just has a decent defense that hasn’t been challenged by many deep passing teams. The best QB performance Baltimore has faced has been the Anthony Richardson/Gardner Minshew combo.

 

Atlanta vs Tampa Bay – Under

Atlanta has one of the better defenses in the NFC South while Tampa has fallen off lately. Atlanta is weak to rushing, but Tampa can’t run the ball. Tampa is weak to passing, but Atlanta can’t throw the ball.

 

 

Full Pick List

New Orleans over Jacksonville
Detroit over Baltimore
Atlanta over Tampa Bay
Washington over New York Giants
Las Vegas over Chicago
Buffalo over New England
Cleveland over Indianapolis
Los Angeles Rams over Pittsburgh
Seattle over Arizona
Green Bay over Denver
Los Angeles Chargers over Kansas City
Miami over Philadelphia
San Francisco over Minnesota