Week 5 AI Picks and 3 Surprise Predictions

The Week 4 rebound went well, with 11 of 15 correct picks. The Pick of the Week was a comfortable win. But Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati all lost in ways that can be attributed to QB injuries. And the Colts tried.

 

Pick of the Week

NYJ over DEN

The Jets have looked bad due to poor QB play. But the Broncos have been historically bad at stopping QBs. Jimmy G, Howell, Tua, and Fields all posted top 10 QB ratings against this defense. Tua and the Dolphins had that historic Week 3 game and Fields had his first > 300-yard passing game.

 

The Bronco Passing Bump

Jimmy G and Sam Howell have averaged QBRs of about 70 in each game this year – except against the Broncos, where they got a 30-point bump. Tua is averaging a QBR of 95 in each game this year – except against the Broncos, where he got a 55-point bump. Justin Fields was averaging a QBR of 65 in each game – except for the Broncos, where he got a 67-point bump.

Zach Wilson has averaged a QBR of 71.55 so far this season. Last week against the Chiefs, he really improved his case. Assuming he gets a 30-point Bronco bump, Wilson will be on par with Lawrence, Dobbs, and Prescott. That should be enough to make the offense run smoothly. If he builds on his performance against the Chiefs, he could be scratching the top-5 QBs for the week.

 

Gashed on the Ground

If you lack faith in Wilson, then let’s look at the ground game. The Jets have a stable of awesome running backs and a solid o-line for run blocking. In fact, they have the second-rated rushing attack behind only Miami – who gashed the Broncos for 350 yards on the ground. If Zach Wilson can’t get it done, the ground game can.

 

Other Circumstances

The thing that really puts this game over the edge is that the Jets have a defense. That alone sets them apart from the Broncos. Russell Wilson has been playing well, with an average QBR of 108.7. But the Jets have limited Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Mac Jones to QBRs in the 60s. Russ and the boys are probably not as good as the Bills or Chiefs and will feel the effect of this stout defense. And, with Javonte Williams nursing a hip injury, the Bronco’s offense is poised to struggle.

With the Broncos facing Kansas City next week on a short Thursday night, the Broncos are caught between a rock and a hard place this week.

 

Surprise Pick

Arizona over Cincinnati

 

Bengals Offense

If you follow football, you’re no stranger to Joe Burrow’s struggles. He’s a good QB, but he’s playing hurt. It’s clear from his current field presence compared to his 2022 field presence that he can only achieve a 3-step drop and maybe 1 step into his throw. The solution has been to keep the passes short and get the ball out quickly. This is evident by their 31st-ranked Ney Air Yards of 4.2. But teams figured this out and have been sitting in Cover-2 press to take away those 1-2 second hot routes and bring pressure. This leads to a deeper throw that lacks full-body control and power.

Arizona is capable of bringing the pressure. They blitz an average of 17.9% of plays, and they generate QB pressure on 17.9% of plays. That puts them in the same efficiency as Cleveland and Tennessee, who rolled Cincy. Arizona gets less pressure from the defensive line but makes up for it with designed blitzes.

Burrow will probably see a variety of blitzes and pressure from the edges.

 

Cardinals Offense

On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals are doing pretty well. Josh Dobbs has to be the surprise player of the year – much like Geno Smith was last year. He has held a solid QBR, while James Conner is on pace for the best season of his career. The speedy receivers are averaging targets 6-7 yards deep and slicing through strong defenses (Dallas and San Francisco).

The Cincinnati defense has been struggling compared to last year. Part of that has to do with the offense not sustaining drives, but it also has to do with the defense being soft over the middle. The average depth of target against Cincinnati has been 10.3 yards per attempt. Targets have been between the numbers 60.2% of the time. Teams have figured out they can attack the gap between linebackers and safeties since Jesse Bates’s departure.

The Arizona offense matches up very well to hurt the Bengals’ defense in a way similar to Tennessee and Baltimore combined.

 

Other Circumstances

Burrow reports feeling better this week, which is great news, but calf injuries don’t go away in a few days after months of lingering. He may be improved, but he still won’t be 100%. This is in addition to Tee Higgins being limited due to a rib injury and Orlando Brown Jr.’s groin injury, which limits outlets and protection.

Arizona does play the Rams next week, which could make this a trap game, but they seem to understand their place in the division and appear to be focused on the present. And it should be noted that Arizona will unveil its new all-black uniforms. Colloquially, teams play harder when they wear new and darker uniforms.

 

A Fun Pick 

Minnesota over Kansas City

Minnesota Offense

We are living in a world where Kirk Cousins is QB 6 for the year, and Mahomes is 15th when evaluating by Rating. Cousins has thrown for more yards, more TDs, and fewer INTs so far this season. His efficiency and ratings have also been in the top 5.

Mattison came online these past two weeks, and Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson appear to be fully healthy.

The Kansas City defense is a bottom-10 unit as a whole. They do an average job with coverage, but they lack any real pass rush.

 

Kansas City Offense

Mahomes has had some struggles with throwing picks so far, but he’s still Mahomes. His heroics can’t be dismissed (or quantified). The wide receivers seem to be struggling to get open, and teams are doubling Kelce. Pacheco finally went off last week, suggesting the team may need some more balanced playcalling to find success.

The Minnesota defense is operating very similarly to Kansas City’s – but better. Minnesota excels at coverage but lacks a pass rush. Looking straight at the stats you may disagree. But when you factor in the strength of opponent the view should flip.

 

Strength of Schedule

The thing that stands out most to me is the strength of schedule. Remember those Crabtree Points I mentioned before the season? Well, they are starting to mean something more and more each week.

Minnesota has lost to Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, and the L.A. Chargers. That’s two strong teams – and the Chargers. But more importantly, it’s a cumulative strength score of 16.5 (That’s one of the highest in the league). 

Kansas City has beaten Jacksonville, Chicago, and the N.Y. Jets. That’s three low-end teams who have a cumulative strength score of 11 (That’s one of the lowest in the league).

 

Other Circumstances

Both teams want to primarily move the ball through the air. Neither team has the defense to stop it. Both teams have divisional games next week, which could imply a lack of focus, but a win here means more to Minnesota to stay alive in the division. 

 

The Full Pick List

Washington over Chicago
Buffalo over Jacksonville
Tennessee and Indianapolis even
Houston over Atlanta
Detroit over Carolina
New England over New Orleans
Miami over N.Y. Giants
Baltimore over Pittsburgh
Arizona over Cincinnati
Philadelphia over L.A. Rams
N.Y. Jets over Denver
Minnesota over Kansas City in a shoot-out
Dallas over San Francisco
Green Bay over Las Vegas