Week 4 AI Picks – Strengths and Weakness

Each week, I run my AI to pick NFL winners. If you’re interested in how it works, you can read about it here.

Week 3 must have put Vegas in the black. With upsets and injuries, it didn’t pan out as expected. So, this week, we look back to learn, improve, and rebound. This week, we’ll look at the team strengths and weaknesses that appeared in Week 3.

Week 3 Results

Safe Picks 3 of 6

Correct: 49ers, Miami, Kansas City

Missed: Dallas, Jacksonville, Baltimore
Dallas doesn’t have the offense to come from behind, the Jaguars did Jaguar things, and Baltimore couldn’t hang onto the ball in the rain.

Risky Picks 3 of 10

Correct: New England, Seattle, Philly

Missed: Tennessee, Atlanta, New Orleans, Vegas, LA Rams, Minnesota, Washington
The Titans don’t seem to know what they’re doing on offense. If it wasn’t for a single 9-yard run, Henry averaged less than 1yrd/ carry.
Atlanta was pretty equal in most stats but couldn’t pass when they needed to. The real difference was one blown coverage resulting in the Goff to La Porta TD.
New Orleans was comfortably winning until Carr went down. Then, the offense couldn’t maintain drives and blew the lead.
Vegas fed turnovers to the Steelers.
Minnesota found new ways to lose, and Washington could not handle the Buffalo pass rush.

While it was a rough week in terms of correct picks, the contribution of weeks like these is important. It highlights team weaknesses and reveals team strengths.

 

Team Weaknesses

Dallas Cowboys

Dallas was punked by Arizona, and it wasn’t a fluke. The Cowboys had three starting linemen drop out. Martin, Biadasz, and Smith did not play. Perhaps they thought they could skate by a lowly team like the Cardinals with backups, but they learned a lesson. Their depth is shallow. The line between good teams and bad teams is thinner than expected, and they can’t take a game lightly.

 

Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore’s offense operates through Lamar running the ball. If they can’t do that, it all falls apart. Missing Gus Edwards didn’t help either.

 

Tennessee Titans

Tennessee looks lost on offense. They posted a total of 130 yards of offense. Derrick Henry has reportedly been dealing with a toe injury that is “not a problem,” Yet he’s only getting 50-65% of his typical volume. Additionally, he’s averaging a career-low of 3.2 yards per rush. It seems like this injury might be more than no big deal, considering the offense needs to run through him.

Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta is a strong team, but they rely on the ground game. If you take it away, they cannot pass efficiently or when they really need to.

 

L.A. Rams

The Rams are in a paradox. They want to throw it. They need to throw it. But they are poor at pass blocking. Cincinnati is bottom 1/3 in QB pressure. They blitz about 36% of snaps and only generate pressure on 18% of plays. That is just a 51.1% efficiency. Yet they had six sacks against the Rams. Stafford is in trouble these next five weeks with teams who are much more efficient at QB pressure – Colts (125.98%), Eagles (147.80), Cardinals (104.30), Steelers (105.20), Cowboys (93.56).

 

Washington Commanders

The Commanders can’t handle pass pressure either. Arizona and Buffalo are both over 100%, while Denver was a laughable 39%. No wonder Howell looked good in Week 2.

Team Strengths

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are fully behind Tua. There’s no more talk or what-ifs. They’re all in. And they have a quality defense.

 

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles are cruising and appear to be treating each game with the same weight. The same business-first attitude each week is something the rest of the division needs to work on.

 

Seattle Seahawks

Seattle has this great soft spot in the schedule to figure out their personnel while getting healthy – Panthers, Giants, Bye, Bengals, Cardinals. They may be the beneficiary of external circumstances, but it’s gearing up for a mid-season run. 

 

AI Picks

Pick of the Week

Tampa Bay over New Orleans

The Bucs just lost to a very good Eagles team in the rain. The Saints just blew the game to a mid-tier Packers team in nice weather. Now, the Saints are looking to be without Derek Carr for at least a week. That means Jameis Winston will sling it and feed tasty turnovers to the Bucs’ secondary, or Taysom Hill will run a gadget offense that runs right into the strength of the Bucs’ defense. New Orleans is currently favored.

 

Thursday Night

• Detroit and Green Bay tie
  • Sometimes, the machine sees a matchup as equal. It did accurately call 3 games going to overtime last season, so these games tend to stay close. This will skew in favor of the Lions if any of their o-line return. Or it’ll skew towards the Packers if Aaron Jones and Christian Watson return. 

 

London Game

• Jacksonville over Atlanta
  
  • Jacksonville should have perfected traveling the time zones by now.

 

Sunday Games

• Buffalo over Miami
• Cleveland over Baltimore
• Denver over Chicago
• Pittsburgh over Houston 
• Indianapolis over L.A. Rams
• Philadelphia over Washington 
• Cincinnati over Tennessee
• Minnesota over Carolina
• L.A. Chargers over Las Vegas
• Dallas over New England
• San Francisco over Arizona
• Kansas City over N.Y. Jets

 

Monday Night

• Seattle over N.Y. Giants
  • We’ll have to watch the late injury report to see if the Giants can stabilize their offensive line.