Week 14 AI Predictions and Teams on the Upswing

Week 13 was good. We went 10 of 13 (77%) and probably would have gotten one more had Lawrence been able to finish the game. Still, I’m pretty happy we nailed the Arizona and Green Bay upsets.

At this point in the season, I would like to revisit teams that are on the Upswing or Downswing. If we recall from week 8 I listed some teams that looked to break out or fall off. Let’s see how we did.

Week 8 Upswings Revisited

Baltimore was spot on. The Ravens went on a 4-1 run and arguably took the top spot in the power rankings.

Kansas City was a mixed bag. They went 2-3 and lost to 2 power run games and a divisional rival. They are still good but appear mortal this year.

Minnesota looked unstoppable, but the loss of Kirk Cousins rocked the ship. Dobbs stepped in and helped guide the team to a 3-2 but confidence appears to be waning.

Week 8 Downswings Revisited

Detroit pulled it together to go 4-1 but they also played 4 teams in the running for draft picks 3-7. They might have won, but they continue to beat bad teams and lose to teams over .500.

New Orleans went 2-3 with a recent 3 game slide. Injuries to Derek Carr keep the offense out of rhythm.

Las Vegas also went 2-3 after benching Jimmy G and firing McDaniels. They’re still competitive but have too many holes to fill to compete in the AFC West this year.

 

Week 14 Upswings

Green Bay

The Packers are sitting 2nd in the NFC North and currently in the 6th seed. They are 3 games behind Detroit but have the easiest remaining strength of schedule. They get the Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers, an unstable Vikings team and Chicago – all winnable games. A 10- or 11-win Packer’s team is a lock to make the playoffs as long as they stay healthy.

 

Houston

The Texans have to be excited. They are sitting one game back from lead of the AFC south with a favorable strength of schedule to finish the season. In fact, they face 3 opponents with 5 or fewer wins, a 7-5 Cleveland team with Flacco, and a finale with Indianapolis.  They are essentially in control of their fate. The loss of Tank Dell hurts, but they are deep at WR and will survive.

The AFC South is set up favorably for the Texans as well. The division leading Jaguars might be without Lawrence as they face a strong portion of their schedule (Cleveland and Baltimore). Or at very least he won’t be at 100% against 2 very good defenses. Indianapolis is in the mix, but they face 3 straight playoff-bubble teams who will be desperate for a win, followed by the season finally with Houston. 

 

LA Rams

The Rams are 6-6 and, to much surprise, sitting in the 8th spot right now. With Stafford and Kyren Williams healthy the offense is finally meeting expectations. Their remaining schedule includes Baltimore followed by 3 teams under 5 wins, and a finale against San Francisco who will probably get to contemplate resting their starters. Going 9-7 might snag the 7-seed.

 

Denver

The Broncos are another 6-6 team that is sitting second in their division. They probably can’t catch the Chiefs, but they still have 4 very winnable games coming up that should be enough to secure a wild card spot.

Week 14 Downswings

Seattle

The Seahawks have ridden a 3-game slide and still face a brutal finish to the season. The 49ers, Cowboys, 49ers schedule sandwich was bad enough, but the follow it up with the Eagles is just tragic. Even the Steelers on New Year’s Eve might be a fate-deciding game for both squads. At the moment Seattle is very beat up with 6 guys on the DNP list including both RBs and the entire center of their defense. It’s bad timing as two more losses and Seattle will likely be down and out.

Buffalo

The Bills have not met expectations this season in the win column, and they still have 3 brutal games remaining (Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins). A final record of 9-7 will be lucky to snag the 7-seed.

Baltimore

The Ravens are set up for failure. I will preface this by saying they are still one of the best teams in the league, but a combination of factors should be of real concern. First, their current expectation is to fight for the 1-seed and that sweet sweet home field advantage. But they play 5 straight teams who are potentially playoff bound (Rams, Jaguars, 49ers, Dolphins, Steelers).

Second, they are only two games up on 2nd place in the division (Steelers and Browns), and both of those teams have cupcake schedules. To put a number to this Baltimore’s remaining SoS is a 67.5 while the Steelers SoS is 60.35 and the Browns SoS is 57.85. A difference of 10 is on par with an entire extra game.

Minnesota

The Vikings are going full roller coaster. Once an upswing they appear to have peaked and are looking at a moderate drop. The Raiders and Bengals are 50/50 games, but the Lions, Packers, and Lions again are a rough end to the season while in a situation with no margin for error.

 

The Picks

Pittsburgh over New England
Tampa Bay over Atlanta
Detroit over Chicago
Houston over NY Jets
Baltimore over LA Rams
Minnesota over Las Vegas
San Francisco over Seattle
Buffalo over Kansas City
LA Chargers over Denver 
Dallas over Philadelphia
Miami over Tennessee
Green Bay over NY Giants

 

Injury Notes

Cleveland over Jacksonville

• This is dependent upon Lawrence not playing. It will flip to Jacksonville if he is able to suit up.

Carolina over New Orleans

• This is dependent upon several Saints players not playing. If a 2 or more of Carr, Hill, Johnson, McCoy, Peat, Werner, Jordan do not play then Carolina has a chance.