Week 13 AI Picks and Strength of Schedule

Week 12 went 11/16 which was an acceptable 69%. It was close to a banner week had Detroit not spotted Green Bay 14 points in the 1st quarter, or if Houston and New England had made their last-second Field Goals we would have been staring at 90%.

Crabtree Points as Tracking Strength of Schedule

Now that we are 2/3 of the way through the regular season, let’s look back at the Crabtree Points that I have been tracking.

As a reminder, this is a method of tracking strength of schedule by combining a team’s win percentage with their opponents win percentage.

The idea is that tracking wins is great, but some wins are more valuable than others. If you’re a team near .500, would you feel better about beating Philadelphia or Carolina? This method quantifies that idea.

For example, a team that loses to a 6-6 team earns 0 points for losing but 0.500 points for their opponent’s strength for a total of 0.500. On the other hand, beating a 1-11 team gives you 1 point for winning and 0.083 points for their opponent’s strength for a total of 1.083.

This week, the highest possible score would be 1.857 points for beating Philadelphia. The lowest possible score would be 0.143 points for losing to Carolina. 

 

The Past Strength of Schedule

Way Back in week 3 I posted some trending tiers from the points system. While the data was slim Dallas, San Francisco, Atlanta, and New Orleans all stood out above the rest. New Orleans was marked as likely to fall and did in fact fall quite a bit. But the others are still in the upper third of the league.

Dallas looks pretty good each week with their historic points differential and historic pick-6s, but they have slid down to 10th. That’s because they haven’t yet beaten a strong (winning) team to earn the big points for the upper tier. 

Atlanta continues to slide to 19th as they can’t settle the QB situation or finish games. Losses to the Commanders, Titans, Vikings, and Cardinals have left a lot of questions for a team with the division lead.

The week 3 bottom tier was shaping up to be Arizona, Chicago, Cincinnati, Houston and LA Chargers.

Cincinnati had a brief Icarus moment but is falling hard once again.

Houston is on the rise but hasn’t yet broken out of the bottom third.

LA Chargers are middle of the pack, but they are boosted by the strength of their division. Their reality is a bit weaker than their rank.

The Present Strength of Schedule

After 9 weeks things have filled in and fluke wins have been smoothed out. The top tier teams are much more expected. Philadelphia, Baltimore, Kansas City, Jacksonville, and San Francisco.

Jacksonville might be the only surprise team but they’re fighting for the 1-seed in the AFC. Their losses are to other top tier teams (and Houston). 

The bottom consists of the teams you’d expect who can’t seem to catch a win. 

All the Crabtree Points

PHI 16.79
BAL 15.73
KC 14.97
JAX 14.95
SF 14.27
DET 13.86
CLE 13.76
MIA 13.61
PIT 13.34
DAL 13.08
LV 12.48
MIN 12.44
BUF 12.39
DEN 12.35
IND 11.93
SEA 11.77
CIN 11.44
GB 11.33
LAR 11.33
ATL 11.27
NO 11.20
HOU 11.01
LAC 10.54
TB 10.52
NYJ 10.47
WAS 10.45
NYG 10.26
TEN 10.02
CHI 9.98
NE 9.48
AZ 8.58
CAR 7.11

The Future Strength of Schedule

With 6 games left on the schedule we have a good idea at how the rest of the season is looking. Cincinnati, Dallas, Seattle, LA Rams, San Francisco, and Tennessee have the hardest remaining slate of 6 games. It’s really not even close. These teams all play several top 10 teams to close out the season.

 

However, a few teams still have a bye, so in order to account for that we can the find the average strength per game. In this case, Cincinnati, Baltimore, and NY Giants have the toughest average game remaining. This is partly due to the AFC North being strong and the Giants having to play Philly twice.

On the flip side, Chicago, Las Vegas, and Green Bay have the lightest load remaining, but again that’s mainly due to bye weeks.

When accounting for bye weeks it’s actually Atlanta, Tampa, New Orleans, and Green Bay who have the easiest average games remaining. Once again, we see influence from the divisions with the NFC South being weak – especially since Tampa gets Carolina twice.

Green Bay gets the double dip here and could very well sneak into the playoffs. This week against the Chiefs will be tough, but after that, they face the Giants, Buccaneers, Panthers, a fumbling Vikings team, and the Bears. With 4 more expected wins and the easiest path, the Packers could be looking as high as a 6-seed.

 

The Picks List

Dallas over Seattle
Indianapolis over Tennessee
L.A. Chargers over New England
Detroit over New Orleans
NY Jets over Atlanta
Arizona over Pittsburgh
Miami over Washington
Denver over Houston
Tampa Bay over Carolina
LA Rams over Cleveland
San Francisco over Philadelphia
Green Bay over Kansas City
Jacksonville over Cincinnati