Last week I went on an exploration of the decline of QBR this season. Week 10 had some good QB play, but it was matched with some low QB play which averaged out the weekly to perfectly match the season average. At least we’re finding some consistency in this new valley.
Vanishing QBR in the single sweep
Since realizing QBR is down and less connected to wins, I revisited the entire basis of my program. I went back to square one, snagged all data from the NFL and looked for correlations. At first pass I looked at each category of data and drew correlations to wins. It looked murky. As mentioned last week QBR was only 0.615 – a full 0.15 (or 15%) lower than last year.
However, Total Defense was 0.618. That’s new. We’ve already talked about the Rise of Defense so the higher correlation makes sense but alone it too is not exciting. Strangely, the individual categories of defense did not correlate well to wins. For example, strong coverage, strong pass rush, or strong run stopping were nearly zero (non-correlated).
This suggests that defenses are not funneling into one specific focus, but actually diversifying what they defend best.
A New Combination in the Double Sweep
On a second pass, I combined each stat with every other available stat. This way we check every combination of stats to see if a pair is a stronger predictor than solo. Wouldn’t you know that the combination of QBR and Total Team Defense was a remarkable 0.881?!
I did more passes with additional layers to find the best combination available. With an altered base formula, I ran it against every game this season and it picked 83% of the winners. That’s a step up from where we were, so we’ll take it.
This makes sense with the vanishing QBR being balanced against a league of diversified defenses. For example, Cleveland might have the best defense, but they’re held back by weak QB play. The LA Chargers have a weak defense but have been kept afloat by Justin Herbert. Washington sits in the middle on both offense and defense.
Overall, this new combination answers several questions and appears to work well. But three teams appear to defy this new model.
Consistent Outliers
Philadelphia
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (1) – Monica Herndon/ The Philadelphia Inquirer
Philly has routinely defied this new metric. They do not have one obvious stat that defies everything that is assumed.
But, they do rank right around rank 10th in most categories. It’s strange that Philly is clearly a strong team, but it does not translate well into raw stats. They are balanced at running & passing, scoring & turnovers. They have the fewest punts in the league but have the most drives ending at the 2nd or 4th quarter. Strange.
They play a slow, strong offensive game that generally chews clock and controls the ball. The game plan works very well but makes them more susceptible to losses due to turnovers (see Week 6 vs NY Jets).
Minnesota
Vikings LB Jordan Hicks (58) – Michael Reaves/Getty Images
Minnesota is an anomaly that was initially carried by Kirk Cousins but has since shifted over to the defense. Kirk played exceptionally well for the first 7 full games. He was atop the league and close to a career best in QBR as well as Yards per Game. He kept Minnesota in several shoot outs that just didn’t quite end in their favor.
While Cousins suddenly vanishing and the Dobbs trade have consumed headlines, the defense has quietly solidified. After the first three games, they were ranked in the bottom 3 in most categories. Now they’ve risen to 21st overall. If you do the math, that means they’re now playing like a top-10 unit. This shift in dynamic also landed them in the blind spot of this new metric.
Pittsburgh
Steelers QB Kenny Pickett (8) – Don Wright/AP
The team that somehow finds a way to win against all odds. Kenny Pickett has a season QBR of 36.3. That’s third to last in the league and most other QBs in that range have been benched (Tannehill, Garoppolo, Ridder). His play, and the offense in general, has not been inspiring. But there are a lot of places to point fingers – like the o-line (31st), the lack of running game(20th), or the play calling (Matt Canada).
But when you think Pittsburgh, you think defense. Surely, they can preserve the balance and lift the team! No. Not really. Overall they’re 20th with a solid pass rush, but a unit that is generally below average. Part of the problem is they’re on the field a lot. Only one game this year has Pittsburgh won the time of possession battle (week 10 Green Bay). In fact, the defense has been on the field for 22:01 (22 minutes and 1 second) more than the offense. That’s nearly 2 whole quarters!
This team’s saving grace is a +10 turnover differential with excellent timing of those turnovers. It’s one of the best ratios in the league and keeps them in games most other teams would drop.
Pick List
Baltimore over Cincinnati
Houston over Arizona
Buffalo over NY Jets
Detroit over Chicago
Pittsburgh over Cleveland
Dallas over Carolina
LA Chargers over Green Bay
Jacksonville over Tennessee
Miami over Las Vegas
Seattle over LA Rams
Washington over NY Giants
San Francisco over Tampa Bay
Minnesota over Denver
Philadelphia over Kansas City
