Week 10 AI Picks and the Mystery of the Vanishing QBR

Week 9 was another week around .500 in picks. This season feels strange for a number of reasons and others are starting to feel the same way.

My thesis has been that QBR is the main component to getting a win. So, if QBR is off, the machine will be off.

 

Total QBR in 2023

Total QBR is reported to be down this year. Compared to last year at this time it’s down, on average, 1.5 points, or 2.8%. While this suggests that league-wide QB play is down a bit, it’s important to understand that this is not equally applied to every QB. A few of the higher end players playing at equal or at slightly elevated levels. Josh Allen and Kirk Cousins were up about 2 points from last year. Most of the QBs who have improved have gone up around 2-3 points, but the QBs who have dropped in ratings have bombed about 20 points.

 

Reasons for QBR Drop

Injuries (8)

First, we have a few injuries. There are 8 starters on IR, or generally missing games, with 14 more QBs on the depth chart dealing with lingering issues. This alone is huge since 8 out of 32 is a quarter of the league already.

Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields, Anthony Richardson, Matthew Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Deshaun Watson, and Kyler Murray were major players last year, who are missing significant time this year. It is assumed that the backups are not able to fully fill in their shoes.

 

Rookies (5)

Second, we have rookie QBs taking over. So far, we’ve seen 10 rookies start. Half have been promoted through earning it outright, while 5 have been promoted out of necessity such as injuries – or maybe the front office traded away the starting QB. With any rookie, there is a learning curve. Some take longer than others.

 

Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, Anthony Richardson, Will Levis, and Aiden O’Connell have earned their starting role. 

Tyson Bagent, Tommy DeVitto, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jaren Hall, and Clayton Tune all played at least 1 game out of necessity and have all filled in for injured veterans.

 

New Teams (7)

Third we have teams who have changed veteran starting QB since last year. Each team hopes for an upgrade while each player hopes for a fresh start. Unfortunately, it doesn’t always play out that way. Of the 8 teams to change veteran QBs only Indianapolis (unintentionally) and Washington have clearly improved over 2022’s performance.

Atlanta, Green Bay, Las Vegas, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay are either still figuring it out or sleeping in the bed they made.

 

Total

If you followed all that then you can see there are 20 teams with at least 1 change to the starting QB from last year. Changes take time to adjust and some have not adjusted well.

 

 

QBR Free Fall

The biggest falls in QBR are close to 20 points. When the league leaders get close to 80, a drop of 20 is massive.

1. Daniel Jones has been hit the hardest with a 25.9-point drop. To be fair, he has probably been playing hurt and has no offensive line.
2. The fall-off Carolina has seen moving from Sam Darnold (51.4) to Bryce Young (29.5).
3. Jimmy Garoppolo who was a 56.3 with San Francisco but has averaged a 35 with Vegas.
4. Fourth, we have Cleveland’s drop-off from Jacoby Brissett (62) to Deshaun Watson (41.7) kind of playing sometimes.
5. Fifth we have Justin Fields who dropped 18.6 points since last year. This was all before the thumb injury.

 

QBR High Risers

1. Houston is patting itself on the back as C.J. Stroud is up 29.3 points over last year’s starter Davis Mills.
2. Gardner Minshew is playing 20 points higher than was Matt Ryan.
3. Sam Howell is 12.8 points better than last year.
4. In a three-way tie, Dak Prescott, Russell Wilson, and Brock Purdy are all up 7.5 points this year.

 

What does it mean?!

After running a Pearson Coefficient test the relationship between QBR to Team Wins, it resulted in 0.61. That’s 0.15 lower, or only 80% of what it was last year at this time. A quick reminder that a 1.0 is a perfect correlation, so higher is better.

 

So we have 2/3 of all teams starting new QBs. We also had 17 new Offensive Coordinators hired in the off-season. When accounting for overlap it brings the entire league total up to 25 teams changing QBs or schemes this off-season.

 

This is a case of the snake eating its tail. Every team tried to grab the next great piece to accelerate the passing game, but it caused too much turnover. Mix this with a rise in defensive talent and we get drops in offensive performance. 

 

Only the Bills, Dolphins, Bengals, Steelers, Jaguars, Lions, and 49ers have kept the same major staff, scheme, and QB from last year. They also all have winning records right now.

 

Pick List

Chicago over Carolina

Indianapolis over New England

New Orleans over Minnesota

Baltimore over Cleveland

Tampa Bay over Tennessee

Cincinnati over Houston

Pittsburgh over Green Bay

Arizona over Atlanta

Dallas over N.Y. Giants

L.A. Chargers over Detroit

Seattle over Washington

N.Y. Jets over Las Vegas

Buffalo over Denver