“This is our year!”
Each year going into the season about half of the NFL teams have fans with that mindset, and the rest are a mix of teams that could sneak into the Wild Card, or they are rebuilding. The Houston Texans fit into that last category. Even though they are rebuilding they are in a season where the fans are expecting to see some big improvements from the last few years.
Biggest Additions
Texans WR Nico Collins (12) and QB C.J. Stroud (7) – Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
With a lot of additions all over the field, this 2023 Texans team will look very different than last year, in addition to a new head coach, Demeco Ryans. Some big names have been added to this roster, so the fans are going to expect to see a much more competitive team than in years past.
(QB) C.J. Stroud (DE) Will Anderson Jr. (C) Juice Scruggs (WR) Tank Dell
(S) Jimmie Ward (G) Shaq Mason (WR) Robert Woods (DT) Sheldon Rankins (LB) Denzel Perryman (CB) Shaquill Griffin (TE) Dalton Schultz (RB) Devin Singletary
Key Losses
(WR) Brandin Cooks (Trade) (OG) Kenyon Green (Season Ending IR) (DB) Desmond King (Cut) (LB) Christian Kirksey (Cut)
I think the best way to look at the Texan’s season is in three six-week chunks. Looking at a 17-week season can seem a little overwhelming. For a young team trying to make a name for themselves, breaking the season into smaller sections can really show how the team grows and how much they learn as it goes on.
Weeks 1-6 “Trial by Fire”
Texans Head Coach DeMeco Ryans – Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
The first six weeks of the season include two playoff teams from last year, three that were one game away from the playoffs, and the Indianapolis Colts. With C.J. Stroud being named the starter, he is going to be thrown right into the fire playing some of the top defenses in the NFL.
On top of this being the toughest part of the Texans’ schedule, and a lot of players on a new team not having played many meaningful snaps with one another, it seems that the Texans already have the very much dreaded injury bug. Three out of their five starting offensive lineman are on IR, including newly extended right tackle, Tytus Howard. They will be without starting safety Jimmie Ward, and WR John Metchie III for at least Week 1. The Texans have some talent, but not many teams, if any, would be able to overcome these kinds of injuries.
If the Texans can get through these six weeks 2-4, and healthier than they are now, then that is a victory. The home game against the Colts, in Week 2, has to be a win. The teams are in similar situations with good defenses, and a lot of questions on offense. Definitely a winnable game.
At Baltimore, at Jacksonville, and at home against the Steelers were already going to be very tough games to win even before the injuries. Pulling out a win in any of these games would be a pretty big upset. Staying competitive in these games would give the players, and the fans, a boost of confidence for the rest of the year.
Weeks 5 & 6, in Atlanta, and at home against the Saints, would definitely not be easy games, but with the possibility of getting Tytus Howard, and Juice Scruggs back, Week 5 would definitely give this team a boost. Going 1-1 in these two games would be big going into the bye week and would be much needed after this tough stretch.
Weeks 7-12 “Win the games you should”
Texans DE Will Anderson Jr. (51) and DT Maliek Collins (96) – Logan Riely/Getty Images
Week 7 is the team bye, so there are five games in this six-week stretch, and the Texans have a chance to have a winning record after this middle third of the season.
Weeks 8, 9, and 11 are all against teams that are in similar stages as Houston. The Panthers drafted their franchise quarterback, Bryce Young, number one overall, right in front of C.J. Stroud in the 2023 draft. Tampa Bay is a very different team than their Super Bowl-winning team two seasons ago, and the Arizona Cardinals are obviously in full rebuild mode. It is also up in the air if Kyler Murray would be back for that game.
None of those games, I believe, would be easy for Houston to win, maybe Arizona if they keep cleaning house. They are three of the more winnable games on the schedule, and if this team is going to show Houston that they are on the right track, these are games they are going to have to win.
Weeks 10 & 12 are in Cincinnati and at home against Jacksonville. The Bengals are some people’s favorite to win the AFC again, so going into Cincinnati and winning would shock a lot of people. Not giving Cincinnati an easy win is important here.
Week 12 at home against Jacksonville would be an enormous win for Houston. Taking down the division favorite in front of your fans would give a huge boost of energy heading into the final six weeks of the season. Would be tough against Trevor Lawrence and all his weapons, but in the NFL, anything is possible.
Weeks 13-18 “Finish Strong”
Texans DB Derek Stingley Jr. (24) – Cooper Neill/Getty Images
Week 13 is against the Denver Broncos, and no one is certain what the Denver Broncos will do in 2023. They have the roster talent to win double-digit games, but last year they were a mess. Either way, this will be a tough test for the Texans.
Weeks 14 & 15 are on the road against the Jets and Titans. These will be the two coldest games for the Texans and quite a change of pace for a team that plays 11 of 17 games in domes. The Jets are a team that just needed a quarterback, it seemed like, and they got Aaron Rodgers, so this will be another very tough test for this young Houston team. The Tennessee game will be the first time the Texans see DeAndre Hopkins as a division rival and another meeting with Derrick Henry, who always seems to terrorize them. The Titans are another team. It will be interesting to see how they perform after how they looked last year.
Week 16 is another matchup with Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland Browns. The Browns took care of business last year, and they are again looking like a strong team, but a win here might be bigger than a divisional win for some Texans fans.
Weeks 17 & 18 close out the season at home against the Titans and then in Indianapolis. It is interesting that they will play the Titans twice in three weeks and then the Colts 16 weeks apart. Closing out the season with two divisional wins could have them sitting with a 3-3 or 4-2 divisional record. In a rebuilding season, small victories can seem big, and a .500 or winning divisional record would be a victory for this team.
Overall, this is a pretty tough schedule for the 2023 season. Based on 2022 win percentages, they have the 3rd easiest schedule, but teams like the Jets, Broncos, Browns, Saints, and Falcons all were last place or tied for last in their division and look to be much better teams in 2023. All have made some big off-season moves to better their teams, and I don’t see any of them finishing last in their division again. The Texans were a roller coaster in the preseason but showed some flashes of a young and talented team that will definitely compete.
Looking at the schedule today the Texans have seven games that they could, or even should, win. Will they win all seven of those games? Probably not, because this is the NFL. However, they could definitely win 1-2 games that would be big upsets, so I see them hanging around that 6-7 win total. Five wins or less would be a disappointing season, and eight or more would show this team is close to being a legit playoff team. I’ll go ahead and predict that the Texans combine their 2021 and 2022 win total and go 7-10 this season. The biggest contributor is the defense that finishes in the top 12 in team defense.
