This weekend the Penn State Nittany Lions will have a huge, season-defining game against the Michigan Wolverines. The Wolverines are ranked third in the College Football Playoff rankings, while the Nittany Lions are tenth. A Penn State win would be the last hope at making the 2023 College Football playoffs. Here is a look at what to watch for this weekend for the Nittany Lions.
What To Watch For
This is going to be a tough game for the Nittany Lions, there is no doubt about that. The team lost to the Ohio State Buckeyes and needed this Big Ten win for any chance to make the College Football playoffs. One of the keys to success against the Wolverines is for the defense to prevent the run game. Last weekend, Michigan rushed for 110 total yards, according to ESPN, but also had five rushing touchdowns. Penn State has a solid defense, and preventing any explosive run plays can really help them win this game.
Of course, the Nittany Lions will still have to find a way to stop quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who passed for over 300 yards against Purdue in week ten. McCarthy has been sacked just 11 times this season, but similarly, Drew Allar has also been sacked just 11 times. While offenses do not play each other, this could be something to watch for. The offensive line for Michigan did not have their best game last weekend, so if the defense prevents Michigan from gaining momentum, that will help.
The Penn State defense has 38 sacks this season and this could be the key to success for Penn State. Even if they do not sack McCarthy often, keeping him under pressure would be critical. McCarthy does not run the ball often but can get out of pressure or get into the endzone by running. This is all easier said than done but will be the key to stopping this offense.
Penn State offense and HC James Franklin Vs. Maryland – Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports
Last weekend, Penn State scored early, and that is something the Nittany Lions were missing in other games throughout the season. While last weekend was a totally different opponent, scoring early saves them from trailing. It does not matter who the opponent is, trailing in a game can be difficult to come back from, though the level of the opponent could make it much more challenging. Against an offense like Michigan’s, the first offensive drive would be a big help.
Trailing behind the Wolverines may be too hard to come back from, as Michigan has averaged 40.7 points per game. Of course, this is the most challenging opponent that Michigan would have faced as of now. It will be interesting to see how many points they are able to put up against Penn State compared to their previous opponents.
The most important thing to watch for this weekend is for the team to play smart. So far this season, Allar has thrown just one interception, and it will be important to keep it that way against Michigan. It would be better for Penn State to punt the ball as opposed to throwing the interception for a good Michigan field position. The play calls also need to be smart. A lot of talk this season has been regarding head coach, James Franklin, not being able to beat major opponents. He needs to make smart coaching decisions this week to get that notion off of his back.
The defense also needs to play smart. They are hard hitters but need to be sure to finish their tackles. This is something the defense greatly improved on. They had a slow game against Indiana but picked it back up last weekend against Michigan. They will also need to avoid penalties. Of course, they are bound to happen, but not giving the Michigan offense any advantage will be critical.
Penn State linebacker Abdul Carter (11) – Joe Hermitt
Penn State Players to Watch
Drew Allar
Allar will definitely be one of the top players to watch in this matchup. He was under immense pressure against Ohio State a couple of weeks ago. Then he threw an interception against Indiana the next week. Since that interception, Allar has looked more composed, but this is a critical game. Luckily it is a Penn State home game, but he will still be under a ton of pressure in such a big game. This season, Allar has completed 181 passes out of 288 attempts for 1,895 yards, according to Sports Reference.
He has also scored two passing touchdowns compared to one interception. He is not a big runner but does have 100 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns this season as well. The team will need him to play smart this weekend against Michigan.
Tyler Warren
The Penn State tight ends have been having themselves a season. It is funny looking back at week one against West Virginia when many questioned why the tight ends were not being utilized. Since then, tight end, Tyler Warren, has been a crucial part of the offense. This season, Warren has had 23 completions for 216 yards and six touchdowns, according to Sports Reference. With questions about the wide receiver position, Warren has been a clutch player for Allar to get the ball to.
Chop Robinson (Maybe?)
If defensive end, Chop Robinson plays this weekend against Michigan, he will be a crucial player to watch. Robinson was injured during the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes, but on Monday, Franklin did tell the media that he is hopeful for Robinson’s return. So as of writing this, Robinson is not guaranteed, but hopefully, he will be fully healthy, and a big part of the defense.
This season, Robinson has had nine combined tackles, seven solo, and five tackles for loss, according to Sports Reference. He has had three sacks, one forced fumble, and one pass defended. If Robinson plays this weekend, he will be a big factor in pressuring McCarthy.
Penn State DE Chop Robinson – Scott Taetsch/Getty Images
Game Predictions
Time for the difficult part, predicting what the outcome for Penn State will be. This could turn into a closer game, especially being a home game for the Nittany Lions. The guess is that this will be a one-score game, and while Penn State could get the upset, Michigan will take the lead 28-25. The home atmosphere could change that, but this week’s pick is the safe one.
