Recently I was browsing Reddit when I saw a post that was inspired by the height of Darnell Washington. He measured in at 6 feet 7 inches with a record-breaking 11-inch hands. He certainly caused a buzz with scouts and seems like he’ll make an immediate impact for the Steelers. But when it comes to Fantasy Football, how do rookie Tight Ends perform?
History of TE Stat Production
Historically the best rookie season by a Tight End was by Mike Ditka in 1961 with 56 receptions, 1076 receiving yards, and 12 touchdowns all in only 14 regular season games. He single-handedly redefined the position from blocking to receiving. A more recent example is the second-best rookie season by Kyle Pitts. In 2021 Pitts posted 68 receptions for 1026 yards and 1 Touchdown in 17 regular season games. Even though he posted the second-best rookie Tight End season in history, he was still only TE 9 for the season.
When drafting Tight Ends for fantasy, we’ve gotten used to the 1000+ yard seasons by Kelce and Kittle or the 10+ TD seasons by Andrews. But, before the elite tier of Tight Ends were elite, they were rookies struggling to get playing time. In fact, rookies since 1960 don’t do too well right out of the gate. Since 2013 only 5 TEs have posted top-25 performances – Pitts (2021), Fant (2019), Andrews (2018), Engram (2017), Wright (2013). None of these historic performances led the league that year.
So historically, rookie TEs are not great bets for immediate fantasy production. But outlier individuals can lead to outlier performances. The measurements at the combine try to give a picture of what a prospect can achieve. You can look at the basics and see big is big and fast is fast, but there’s another level that can be reached by combining measurements.
Look at that Mass
Steelers TE Darnell Washington (80) – Ben Tenuta/93.7 The Fan
First, let’s look at body composition or BMI. This attempts to normalize height vs weight. Washington is 6’7” 264 lbs which is both the tallest and heaviest in the class. But when you calculate BMI, he is actually a bit below average (29.92) with a score of 29.74. There are arguments that certain BMIs for each position are ideal for protection from injury. If he wants to cover his bases, he will need to add some muscle.
His 29.74 BMI falls into a sweet spot above the average historic rookie (29.55) but below league leaders (30.50) of the past 15 years. This leaves the door open for a good first year and room for growth. The largest BMI in this draft class is Brenton Strange (30.79) of the Jaguars.
Can’t Stop the Momentum
Being massive is great, but it’s useless if you can’t move it. Washington posted a 40-yard dash of 4.64 which was fourth best in the class. A big body moving fast is tough to slow down and can drag defenders. If you happened to take physics in school, you’ll recall that Mass x Velocity (speed) = Momentum. Washington has the highest momentum of this class, of any league leader in the past 15 years, and only two historical rookie TEs had more potential momentum – Gronk and Ozzie Newsom. That’s pretty good company. The second-best momentum in this class goes to Tucker Kraft in Green Bay.
Force the Issue
If we take this a step further, we can use Mass x Acceleration = Force. Force is great to see how someone will do with blocking or breaking tackles. The 10-yard split and jumping measurements are better measures of explosiveness or acceleration. It should be no surprise that Darnell Washington generated the most force. This was suspected after the viral video of him smashing the blocking sled at the combine.
The 10-yard split has only been recorded for a few years, but Washington is in the top 10% of rookies in the past five years. A few athletes, like Luke Farrell, have posted higher overall force, but they stay mostly in the blocking role. While these athletes don’t often post great fantasy numbers, they are important contributors to their teams. The second-largest force generator from this draft class is Michael Mayer in Las Vegas.
Be a Huge Target
Blocking is great and will help earn playing time, but it isn’t sexy. Being a big target helps turn snaps into targets. Darnell Washington is one of the tallest Tight Ends in recent history, which is a good start. Having the longest arms in recent history helps, but it was expected. And having record-breaking 11-inch hands is pretty impressive too.
Combine the size dimensions with jumping ability, and we can generate a range that the player can possibly haul in a pass. It shouldn’t be a surprise that Washington has the largest range in this draft class. He is a massive target that dwarfs historic rookies and is only slightly behind Gronk and Jimmy Graham. In fact, Washington’s highest point to watch a ball would be 12’4” – almost 2.5 ft above the field goal crossbar or a basketball rim. The second-best range in this draft class is Sam LaPorta in Detroit.
Team Outlook
If I say Heath Miller and Jesse James, and Vance McDonald, can you think of another Steelers Tight End? As a rule, Steeler TEs are blocking focused who release late as a safety valve for the QB. They are generally not dynamic athletes put on streak routes or schemed into space to make plays. After all, an athlete can only find as much success as his team can generate.
Mike Tomlin has done well to get special players the ball throughout his career. However, Matt Canada, the offensive coordinator, has been under the microscope since taking over due to the offense not being as efficient. It’s hard to fault him, considering the departure of Bell, Brown, and Roethlisberger, which forced a hard reboot.
Canada tends to focus on the run game with vertical threats on the outside and some underneath routes. The idea worked well enough to limp to a 9-7 record, but it always seemed like it was missing a piece. This offseason, the front office went all-out to shore up the offensive line and improve blocking. There are rumors that Pittsburgh liked Washington primarily for his blocking ability. He has earned the nickname “The 6th O-linemen” for a reason.
Darnell Washington Season Outlook
Former Georgia TE Darnell Washington (0) – Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
If this rumor is true about Darnell Washington, then he will be tucked into a blocking role for the foreseeable future. Unless Freiermuth suffers an injury, Canada decides to use 2 TEs heavily, or Washington strings together a run of 2+ big games; he is going to be limited. As a rookie in this current situation, Washington is not in line to be a top 15 Tight End. According to past data, and assuming no major injuries, Washington looks to fit into about 30 receptions, 325 yards, and 4 TDs.
Things can change, but as it stands, he will not be a fantasy-relevant draft pick. He may be a depth pick with upside or a flier near the end of the draft. He will certainly be of greater value in dynasty formats. But he’s going to need a big opportunity on the team to break out. Historically most Tight Ends make their break in year 2 or 3. Darnell Washington is a fascinating athlete but looks like a big fantasy football investment for the future.
