College Football Playoff Look Ahead

While the College Football Playoff just concluded its ninth season, expansion is already set to hit the nation in 2024 as the field will triple in size from 4 to 12 postseason teams. According to Heather Dinich of ESPN, “The field will comprise the selection committee’s six highest-ranked conference champions and its next six highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn the top seeds and a first-round bye.”

What will the College Football Playoff look like over the next 20 years if it remains at 12 teams?

If you look at the past 20 seasons – 10 years of the CFB playoff and then the final regular season rankings of the ten previous BCS era seasons – you can find an accurate portrayal of the conference strength of the modern era. These past two decades, under the current four-team model, would provide 80 college football playoff participants over that span, four teams per year.

Of those 80 playoff possibilities:

37 will be SEC teams in 2024  ~ 46.25 %

18 with be Big 10 teams in 2024 ~ 22.5 %

9 will be ACC teams in 2024 ~ 11.25 %

8 will be Big 12 teams in 2024 ~ 10 %

6 will be Pac 12 teams in 2024 ~ 7.5 %

2 will be IND teams in 2024 ~ 2.5 %

What do these numbers indicate? Well, we must take into account that every season at least ONE Group of Five programs will automatically qualify for the playoffs starting in 2024. And these numbers indicate that Independent Notre Dame will qualify for the playoff once every three seasons.

With the expansion of both the SEC and Big 10, it is logical to conclude that the committee will be faced with selecting a 3-loss at-large team from the two power conferences OR a 2-loss team from the remaining Power Five at-large programs.

A 10-2 Oregon vs. a 9-3 LSU, perhaps?

To create more parity and given the sheer number of programs, it’s more likely that the future playoff breakdown, unless there is more immediate conference realignment after the 2024 season, will follow suit when averaged out of the next 20 years:

7/12 teams coming from SEC/BIG 10

4/12 teams coming from ACC/BIG 12/PAC12/Notre Dame

1/12 team coming from the G5

This pattern is exactly how the 2023 season would have played out.

1. SEC              Georgia
2. Big 10          Michigan
3. ACC             Clemson
4. Pac 12          Utah
5. At-Large     TCU
6. At-Large     Ohio State
7. At-Large     Alabama
8. At-Large     Tennessee
9. Big 12          Kansas State
10. At-Large     USC
11. At-Large     Penn State
12. AAC             Tulane

So, what if the new playoff format began in 2022? Would the outcome have changed? Let’s play it out.

Round 1

(12)Tulane @ (5) TCU

Tulane’s offensive output would make this an enjoyable and close game, but TCU repeatedly demonstrated the ability to persevere, winning 6 of 7 one-score games in 2022.

(11) Penn State @ (6) Ohio State

 OSU pulled away in Happy Valley this past year, leading by 20 with just over a minute remaining in the contest. If Penn State couldn’t help self-destructing with four turnovers in front of 108,000 home fans, what logic is there to the Nittany Lions prevailing in a road environment at the Horseshoe?

(10) USC @ (7) Alabama

This would have been an entertaining matchup between the two reigning Heisman Trophy winners. For all the questions about Nick Saban’s dynastic tenure, let’s not forget that the Crimson Tide finished 5^th with just two losses….both on the road….by a combined four points. USC, meanwhile, gave up at least 25 points in whopping nine football games.

(9) Kansas State @ (8) Tennessee

In a very fitting eight vs. nine matchups, both of these programs raised their future outlook with a season of overachievement. Kansas State seemed to be peaking at the right time after upsetting TCU in the BIG 12 Title game, while Tennessee lost starting quarterback Hendon Hooker and 2 of 4 November games. Despite the disparity in momentum, beating Tennessee in Knoxville under coach Josh Heupel has proven to be quite difficult for opponents.

Round 2

(8) Tennessee vs. (1) Georgia

Tennessee produced less than 300 yards the first time around. Despite not playing in Athens, the Volunteers would also be without their QB1.

(7) Alabama vs. (2) Michigan

Bryce Young vs. JJ McCarthy…

(6) Ohio State vs. (3) Clemson

A hungry and focused Ohio State team vs. true freshman QB.

(5) TCU vs. (4) Utah

This should be the most compelling affair of the second round. Utah, losing to both Florida and UCLA earlier in the season, has put more weaknesses on tape. Also, TCU’s defense might be the most stout Utah has faced.

Round 3

(7) Alabama vs. (1) Georgia

One cannot pick against arguably the best UGA team ever vs. one of the weaker Alabama teams over the last decade. Insanely, this highlights just how dominant Nick Saban’s tenure has been.

(6) Ohio State vs. (5) TCU

The clock strikes midnight on Cinderella. It’s not Georgia-TCU ugly, but it’s not Michigan-TCU close, either.

Title Game

(6) Ohio State vs. (1) Georgia

42-41 Georgia. Watch out, Vince Young. Arguably the greatest CFB title game ever, with exactly 1000 yards of total offense.

Detractors of the new system will certainly voice their dissent once a favorite suffers a devastating injury in the first round or two. How is it fair that the champion used to have to win just one game (BCS) or two (current system) and now has to win four? Proponents of the new system, however, will point to the amazing atmosphere of the first-round home games or second-round parity due to the seeding rules.

Either way, change is coming…well, sort of.