Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers – Darryl Webb/AP Photo
The landscape of the NFL changed on Wednesday when Aaron Rodgers announced his intention to play for the New York Jets. The Jets season has a much brighter outlook and the Packers will move on with Jordan Love. However, the move is not without questions and there is a big one for the Jets. Can Aaron Rodgers return to MVP form?
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Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (12) – Benny Sieu/USA TODAY Sports
Aaron Rodgers In MVP Form
In the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs. In each of those seasons, the Packers had a 13-3 record and were the no. 1 seed in the conference. While each of those seasons ended in playoff heartbreak, there was no denying how good Rodgers was during the regular season. Below are his stats for those seasons.
2020: 70.7 completion percentage, 4,299 yards, 48 TDs, 5 Ints, 121.5 passer rating, 79.8 QBR
2021: 68.9 completion percentage, 4,115 yards, 37 TDs, 4 Ints, 111.9 passer rating, 69.1 QBR
The 2020 season especially was glorious. 48 touchdowns versus only five interceptions is a special season. In each of these years, he led the league in passer rating and QBR. This is the Aaron Rodgers that the Jets are hoping for. Is it the one they will get?
Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers (12) – Patrick Semansky/AP Photo
Aaron Rodgers In Other Seasons
Obviously, in the late 2000s and early to mid-2010s Rodgers was arguably the best quarterback in the league. However, if we look at the seasons surrounding his MVP years, it paints a picture that might concern Jets’ fans. Here are the stats for Rodgers for the 2018, 2019, and 2022 seasons.
2018: 62.3 completion percentage, 4,442 yards, 25 TDs, 2 Ints, 97.6 passer rating, 58.0 QBR
2019: 62.0 completion percentage, 4,002 yards, 26 TDs, 4 Ints, 95.4 passer rating, 52.5 QBR
2022: 64.6 completion percentage, 3.695 yards, 26 TDs, 12 Ints, 91.1 passer rating, 39.3 QBR
Compare those to the stats above in the MVP years. Outside of the yards and the interceptions, everything else is significantly lower. He never eclipsed 30 touchdowns in those three years. His passer rating was 20-30 points lower. His QBR is 10-20 points lower. His completion percentage is 10 points lower. If you look at these seasons, 2020 and 2021 seem more like outliers rather than the norm.
Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers – Stacy Revere / Getty
Which Rodgers Will We See?
The answer is clear; we do not know. However, in looking at the sample size of 2018-2022, we see that in 60% of the seasons, Rodgers was a middle-of-the-road quarterback. That may be good enough for the Jets. Peyton Manning went to the Denver Broncos late in his career and had a noodle for an arm the year they won the Super Bowl. While he didn’t post huge stats, he made enough plays in order to put his team in winning positions. The Jets have enough talent on defense that Rodgers shouldn’t have to put up 40 points a game in order to win games.
This is going to be one of the most fun storylines to follow for the 2023 season. Especially when you factor in Jordan Love’s performance, if Love performs well and Rodgers doesn’t, the narrative will be about how smart the Packers were for bailing. If it is the opposite, the Packers may have some wounds to lick. Can Aaron Rodgers return to MVP form? Only time will tell.
