Even though it feels like one, the Buffalo Bills matchup against the Miami Dolphins this Sunday is not a playoff game. The Bills had a dominant performance on defense against the Washington Commanders in week three, holding the squad to just three points off a face-saving field goal in garbage time. In his third-ever start at middle linebacker, LB Terrell Bernard secured two interceptions, two sacks, and a fumble recovery. This feat hasn’t been accomplished since HOFer and former LB Brian Urlacher did it with the Chicago Bears in 2007. Nevertheless, nobody seems to care about any of that.
Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Week 4
The Bills week three performance at FedEx Field has mainly gone overlooked because, in case you haven’t heard, their upcoming opponent stacked an absurd 70 points against the lowly Denver Broncos last Sunday. The high-scoring affair is only two points shy of the record for most points ever scored in NFL history— 72, which happened back in 1966.
So, okay, we get it. The Dolphins and that high-flying offense deserve the flowers and accolades they’ve been getting all week. Kudos to them. However, the Broncos are not the Bills, and a second-straight 70-point outing is not likely for the fish. Still, they have the talent to dominate the scoreboard, so how can the Bills come away with a win? Let’s break it down.
Miami’s High-Speed Offense
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa (1) – Mark J Terrill/AP Photo
The most recognizable difference between the Dolphins and the rest of the league is that they look faster than everyone else. That’s because they are. WR Tyreek Hill, WR Jaylen Waddle, RB Raheem Mostert, and rookie RB De’Von Achane are all basically track stars. Putting a cap on that speed by keeping those guys in front of the defense is the first point of emphasis. But that’s easier said (or written) than done.
QB Tua Tagovailoa has not been injured yet this season, and when healthy, he is showing that he is an elite passer. Tagovailoa is leading the NFL in multiple categories, including a passer rating of 121.9. More impressive is that he also has the quickest trigger, with an average release time of 2.24 seconds. That means he gets the ball out fast and does so with impeccable accuracy.
Of course, Head Coach and offensive play caller Mike McDaniel is somewhat of a guru. Known as an academic mind and a mad scientist, McDaniel has been drawing up plays for this offense that even Bills Head Coach Sean McDermott has called “revolutionary.” The ridiculous number of motions and constant pre-snap eye candy McDaniel works into his calls can be a tremendous distraction. So, what can the Bills do to slow it down?
Number 1: Play Smart Defense
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (10) – Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images
McDermott’s defensive play-calling style, while a small sample size this year, is reminiscent of the same schemes and formations he employed in Carolina when he consistently had that defense in the top five of the league, helping take them to a Super Bowl. And so far, he has this group operating at a high level.
That said, the Bills have not faced the highest-powered offenses during the first three weeks. The Dolphins clearly have the best squad the Bills will face through the first four weeks. To limit this offense, the Bills D first needs to find a way to get Tagovailoa to hold onto the ball for even a fraction of a second longer than he does currently.
So far this season, Tagovailoa has thrown to his first read on 82% of throws. Additionally, his stellar passer rating plummets significantly when under pressure. So, first and foremost is for McDermott to find a way to get pressure on Tagovailoa, take away his first read (which the Bills have been doing at a fairly high rate), and force him to hold onto the ball for a just tick longer than he prefers. Disrupt his timing. This, of course, is no secret. But for the Bills defense to be successful, they also have to do a few other things:
- Control the line of scrimmage, rushing four and dropping seven.
- Squeeze the pocket with consistent pressure.
- Get hands in the air and muddy up throwing windows
- Position linebackers to jump into throwing lanes
- Dominate the red zone
- Maintain clear communication and, of course, play fast
Number 2: QB Designed Runs
Bills QB Josh Allen (17) Stiff Arms Dolphins Defender – Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Currently, the Dolphins defense allows an average of 2.28 yards before making contact with opposing runners. Of course, Bills mafia has been ecstatic to see RB James Cook emerge in his second year, giving the Bills a much-needed run game, and the team should lean into giving him some extra carries on Sunday.
What has also been a relief is the last two steady weeks of watching QB Josh Allen embrace a more game-manager approach instead of living and dying on every down. Allen has not been running nearly as much as in previous years, which is good, particularly for his long-term health.
However, this is a game where OC Ken Dorsey might want to draw up some QB-designed runs and unleash the dynamic dual-threat that Allen is known to be. Obviously, not in a reckless manner, but mixing in some well-designed runs for Allen could be an easy ticket to plentiful gains against this new Vic Fangio-led defense.
While certainly one of the premier defensive minds in football for the last couple of decades, Fangio tends to stack the box pretty lightly with his formations. With the way that the Bills offensive line has been playing this season, that could open up some major lanes for Allen. Overall, the running game will be a major key to opening up a Bills victory, and utilizing Allen this way can add an extra layer to get it done. That also, however, leads to the final detail:
Number 3: Ball Security
Not much else needs to be said. If the Bills are going to win this matchup, they will need to take exceptional care of the rock. No coughing it up on runs. No arm punts. Knowing how many points the Dolphins can rack up in a heartbeat, it is essential for the Bills not to give them any extra possessions whatsoever. This is the NFL. Nothing is promised on any given Sunday. But if the Bills can stay true to themselves, stick to their fundamentals, and employ the tactics mentioned above, they should be able to emerge victorious. Until then, Go Bills!
