The Chiefs are still very much in contention for the number one seed in the playoffs. As of now, they sit in third place at 8-4, but would own the tiebreaker over the current first place team, the Miami Dolphins. This week will be a challenge for the Chiefs; they play a Bills team who is desperate for a win. However, after this week their schedule lightens up considerably.
The Current AFC playoff picture looks like this:
- Miami Dolphins (9-3)
- Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
- Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
- Cleveland Browns (7-5)
- Indianapolis Colts (7-5)
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins are currently on a three-game winning streak. During this stretch, they’ve outscored opponents 99-41. They can be a dominant offensive team, as we saw when they hung 70 points on the Broncos. However, they have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season. On one hand, those losses have come to the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles. There’s no shame in losing to those teams. But it’s more about how they’ve lost those games. They didn’t look great in any of those games.
Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel – NFL.com
The good news for the Chiefs is 2 of the Dolphins last 5 games will be against teams with a winning record. Potentially 3, depending on where the Bills record is at the end of the season. The Dolphins remaining games are vs Titans (4-8), vs Jets (4-8), vs Cowboys (9-3) on Christmas Eve, at Ravens (9-3), and vs Bills (6-6).
Going 3-2 in this stretch would be a positive for the Dolphins and would put their season record at 12-5. However, that would leave the door open for the Chiefs. According to ESPN, Miami has a 37% chance of clinching the one seed, the highest of any team in the AFC, as well as a 31% chance to make the Super Bowl. That’s the second highest across the entire NFL, with the 49ers given the highest chance at 47%.
Baltimore Ravens
After defeating the Chargers in Los Angeles 2 weeks ago, the Ravens finally were awarded their bye week. There are no real holes with this Ravens team. Led by Lamar Jackson, they are 7th in points per game at 27. They also claim the number one defense in points per game at 15.6. (ESPN stats)
Raven QB Lamar Jackson (8) – Nick Wass/ AP Photo/ Associated Press
The Ravens 5 remaining games don’t provide much of a break. This week they play a home game against a surging Rams team (6-6) that is riding a three-game win streak. After that, their schedule looks like this: at Jacksonville (8-4), at San Francisco (9-3) on Christmas Day, vs Miami (9-3), and vs Pittsburgh (7-5). The Jacksonville game may look different depending on the severity of Trevor Lawrence’s injury.
Like Miami, going 3-2 in this stretch would mean you played solid ball. That would also put Baltimore at 12-5. ESPN calculates the Ravens at a 33% chance of getting the one seed and a 30% chance of reaching the Super Bowl.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The big story in football this week came in the Monday night game between the Jaguars and Bengals. With 5:43 left in the game, Lawrence was awkwardly sacked by Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson. Lawrence tried to get up but fell down. The replays showed his ankle stepped on and the report is that it’s a high ankle sprain. You never want to see injuries in football, especially to young stars like Lawrence, who had his team rolling. Also, shoutout to Hendrickson for showing immediate concern for Lawrence. After trying to help him up, Hendrickson realized the severity of the injury and immediately began praying.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (16) and Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson (91) – screenshots from X/ @NFL
Jacksonville’s remaining schedule looks like this: at Browns (7-5), vs Ravens (9-3), at Buccaneers (5-7), vs Panthers (1-11), and at Titans (4-8). That’s not a tough finish, and hopefully Lawrence is back by then. Like with the Dolphins, the Chiefs own the tiebreaker over the Jaguars. This could prove crucial for the Chiefs. If Lawrence is out, the Browns and Ravens game will be tough,but they will be challenging even with Lawrence.
However, the Jaguars could bring Lawrence back in a soft part of the schedule. The good news for Jaguar fans it that Lawrence did return to practice Thursday and has not been ruled out for Sunday’s game against Cleveland. It will be interesting to see how Doug Pederson and the Jaguars handle this injury coming down the home stretch.
ESPN’s projections give Jacksonville a 7% chance at the one seed and only a 7% chance of reaching the Super Bowl.
Kansas City Chiefs
Long story short, the Chiefs just need to win. Take care of the Bills at home this week, then don’t take your remaining opponents lightly. After the Bills game, the Chiefs play at Patriots (2-10), vs Raiders (5-7) on Christmas Day, vs the Joe Burrowless Bengals (6-6) and at Chargers (5-7). This is a pretty favorable schedule compared to the Dolphins, Ravens, and Jaguars. Going 4-1 in this stretch is more than doable. That would also put Kansas City at 12-5, giving them a chance at the one seed. ESPN’s calculations give the Chiefs a 22% chance of clinching the one seed and a 24% chance of reaching the Super Bowl.
