2023 Week 1: AI Picks

Each week, I will be posting my AI picks for each game. If you haven’t done so yet, you can read about how it works here – Stats and AI: Predicting NFL Winners.

Week 1 is a funny week because we don’t have data yet. The stats from the preseason are very poorly correlated to how players and teams fare in the regular season. Coaches generally make decisions based on getting players on film, not necessarily to go for the win.

For example, the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns were 0-16 in the regular season, but they were both 4-0 in the preseason. On the flip side, the 2007 Patriots finished 16-0 but went 2-2 in preseason. Super Bowl champions over the past ten years average 2-1 or 2-2.

A combination of roster cuts, trades, and personnel moves leads to a readjustment of game planning and team chemistry. The preseason stats are a different animal that doesn’t translate well into regular season predictions.

Since my machine needs data to work, so we’re waiting for good numbers to feed it. But for week one, I can identify some trends.

Teams who were bad last year are often berated by the public, and teams who had big headlines in the off-season are overhyped.

AI Picks – Undervalued Teams

Houston Texans

vs. Baltimore

Line: Baltimore -9.5

AI Picks: Baltimore -4.5

Houston has been struggling for years. I get it. But they’re looking better than the public is giving them credit for. They are early in their total rebuild, but they have the key pieces in place. The O-line is a top-12 unit, even after all of the injuries. The skill positions are above average, and the rookie QB has higher potential than they’ve seen in a few years. On defense, the front four look fierce, while the LBs and DBs have an interesting mix of veterans and youth.

While Houston will be working through the growing pains of a new QB, Baltimore will be working through the growing pains of a new receiving core. They added OBJ, Agholor, and Treadwell and drafted Zay Flowers. While this new crew is certainly more talented than Baltimore has seen in a while, they’re also older and coming off injuries. This might not be the passing dream team, or so it looks on paper. Couple that with no major improvements to the running game; this offense could spin its wheels more than expected.

Houston is primed to cover this spread, and Baltimore is likely to miss the 10-point beat down.

Los Angeles Rams

vs. Seattle

Line: Seattle -9.0

AI Picks: Seattle -4.0

Last year, the Rams were painfully bad. But the thing the general public doesn’t seem to remember is the Rams had 23 players on IR at some point through the season. That’s essentially the entire starting offense and defense. The Rams were running their JV team and still found ways to compete.

To give an idea of how bad the injuries were, players missed 167 games. It was also over $70 million worth of cap money that sat in the rehab room.

While this team still has issues and probably won’t win a lot of games, they should at least be competitive with their starters back in the lineup. My machine sees this game against the Seahawks panning out to -6. It’s quite difficult for a team to beat a divisional rival by two scores when both are fully healthy.

 

 

New York Giants +3.5

vs. Dallas

Line: Dallas -3.5

AI Picks: Dallas -0.5

The Giants are set for a revenge tour. They’ve settled the contract drama and (theoretically) improved the roster along the offensive line and the receiving corps. Danny Dimes should have time in the pocket and receivers who can get open – making it the most dimensional offense they’ve had in a while.

Last year, Dallas had an impressive season, but coaching and player turnover has left some questions. Nearly every skill group on both sides of the ball has some shakeup that needs to be ironed out. Going against a division rival is not the ideal time to address this.

I would like to point out that nearly all Giants’ starters have played at least one series in preseason, while most of the Cowboys’ starters have not. This suggests the Giants will be more prepared for game speed while the Cowboys will get off to another famous slow start. Going all the way back to 2010, the Cowboys have only won three Week 1 games.

 

AI Picks – Overhyped Teams

Minnesota Vikings

vs. Tampa Bay

Line: Minnesota -6

AI Picks: TB -1

The Vikings had a wild season of nail-biting wins and blowout losses. While it was fun, it was also not maintainable, as they found out against the Giants. Over the off-season, they didn’t really improve as a team, and, at best, they might have maintained. They lost Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook and are hoping for similar production from T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and Alexander Mattison. That’s a risky move.

The Vikings were gashed on defense. In 2022, they were 22nd in QB pressure, and now they lost Dalvin Tomlinson and Eric Kendricks. The hope is Marcus Davenport, Dean Lowry, and rookie Jaquelin Roy can fill the void up front. The secondary also lost players, leaving Harrison Smith and second-year Cornerbacks Booth and Evans to hold it down. Byron Murphy was a nice addition, but he was a slot corner for Arizona. With the reshuffling, it’s hard to say this defense has improved, and it wasn’t even very good before.

 

Tampa Bay has been looked down upon this offseason for a number of reasons. Baker Mayfield happens to be at the top of the list. He is inconsistent and has not met the lofty expectations of a Number 1 Draft Pick. But he has his moments where he plays lights out. Even though his Offensive Line is questionable, he shouldn’t face serious pressure this week. Plus, he has two of the best receivers he’s ever played with.

The Defense isn’t as stout as it used to be, but they have the tools to stall the Vikings. As we learned last year, defenses that doubled Justin Jefferson strangled the entire offense. Now that they don’t have to worry as much about the Viking ground game, they can sink back into coverage and force Cousins and rookie WR Addison to make all the plays. 

 

Indianapolis Colts

vs. Jacksonville

Line: Jacksonville -5

AI Picks: Jacksonville -8

The Colts aren’t hyped too much right now, but it’s still too much. I live in Indianapolis, and the general feeling is blind hope and bliss. Mainly because everyone is trying to avoid seeing reality. The starting QB has only played 24 games in college, where he attempted an average of 16.5 passes per game. When he was named the starter, he responded with, “Honestly, I was shocked. I’ve still got to work for it despite being granted the opportunity.” That’s not the confidence you hope for in the leader of the offense.

In addition to the shaky QB situation, the star running back was just alienated. In an amazing display of inconsistency and irrationality, the Colts told Johnathan Taylor he isn’t worth the money, then asked for a king’s ransom for a trade, all while spending $20 million on a whale who died days after paying for an escape. This holdout/PUP list fiasco is the most normal distraction on a team that needs complete focus.

The Colts’ defense is respectable, but for the past several years, they have kept crumbling to the Jaguars. Speaking of whom, they appear to have reloaded and possibly improved a bit.

 

AI Picks – Overall

This is the whole list of Moneyline picks based on ESPN’s pre-season rankings. This is not yet based on 2023 data.

 

Safe Bets

• Washington over Arizona
• Philadelphia over New England
• Seattle over the Los Angeles Rams
• Kansas City over Detroit 
• New Orleans over Tennessee
• Baltimore over Houston
• Miami over the Los Angeles Chargers

Risky Bets

• Cincinnati over Cleveland
• San Francisco over Pittsburgh
• Atlanta over Carolina
• Denver over Las Vegas
• Green Bay over Chicago
• New York Jets over Buffalo

Overrated Complications

• Indianapolis over Jacksonville
• Tampa Bay over Minnesota
• Dallas over the New York Giants