The 2023 Raiders could be without Josh Jacobs, the NFL’s leading rusher in 2022. After leading the league in rushing, there has been no deal between the two. Jacobs seeks to reset the entire running back market after being denied his 5th-year option in 2022 and franchise tagged by the Raiders this offseason.
To sum it up, the Raiders’ offense lives and dies with Josh Jacobs. When Josh Jacobs has 20+ carries in a game, the Raiders are an outstanding 18-6 record-wise. In those games, according to Statmuse, Jacobs averages 4.7 yards per carry. Those numbers are comparable to other elite rushers such as Derrick Henry and Nick Chubb. It is undeniable the impact Jacobs has on the team. Even after the bold moves, the team made this offseason, it’s evident that the team has had tremendous success when leaning on Jacobs.
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs (28) – Grant Halverson/Getty Images
What would the offense look like without Josh Jacobs?
This season, the Raiders’ offense is revamped. Quarterback Jimmy Garrapalo is coming over from San Francisco and from a system where he experienced most of his success either throwing the ball short or handing it off to a running back. Darren Waller is gone, replaced by a trio of tight ends featuring rookie Michael Mayer from Notre Dame.
The starting offensive line is the same as it was in the 2022 season, despite heavy struggles and penalty issues all season long. Right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor was the most penalized player on the entire team, with 11 penalties last season. The receiving core now features the heavily paid Jakobi Myers in addition to Hunter Renfrow and Devante Adams, still the best wide receiver in the NFL.
Without Jacobs, the Raiders will likely have the following running backs on the roster: Brandon Bolden, Zamir White, Amir Abdullah, and Britton Brown. Bolden is the most senior of the group at 32 years old and looked remarkably slow last season in limited action. As a former Patriot, however, he likely would factor into heavy playing time.
Raiders RB Zamir White (35) – Nick Cammett/Getty Images
Zamir White has 17 yards in his career, as he was a rookie last season. He has the most upside of the group and showed flashes of potential, although he struggled with running in between the tackles. Abdullah is the best screen option for the Raiders’ short passing attack, and at 29 showed he still has some spring in his step but is best utilized as a returner.
The wild card here is Brown, as we haven’t seen him play at all on offense. He was a rookie last season and only got on the field for some special teams snaps, and even then, he was inactive for most games. If coach McDaniels saw something there last season, he likely would’ve gotten some carries.
This is not a unit that Raider Nation can realistically look at and think, “We’re going to be ok.” Simply put, none of the following guys at this point have shown that they can fill Jacobs’ role in this offense. Josh Jacobs is the ultimate bell cow back. He’s the guy the Raiders have looked to time and time again not just to put away games but to put the entire offense on his back and carry them to victory.
This offense is going to rely heavily on the ground attack this season. The Raiders are going from Derek Carr to Jimmy G, and while some might call it a lateral move in terms of talent, Carr and Garrapalo are very different in how they like to move the ball down the field. Garrapalo is a well-known game manager, while Carr has typically ranked inside the top 10 for deep ball passing every season since he entered the league in 2014.
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs (28) – Jeff Bottari/GettyImages
Given that Jacobs was the NFL’s leading rusher last season, relying on the run game is a good game plan. If he’s not there, then who fills the void? Likely Brandon Bolden would get a significant amount of playing time due to the New England connection. Zamir White also likely would have a much larger number of carries compared to his rookie season. A running back committee similar to the one that Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels utilized in New England would be the go-to move. But based on what we have seen so far, it’s highly unlikely the Raiders’ other runners would come close to the level of production that Jacobs himself was able to produce last season.
Devante Adams has been on record saying he and the coaches have a very different vision for how each believes the team’s offense should look in 2023. You can absolutely bet all the money in your bank account that vision must include Josh Jacobs. Without him, the Raiders 2023-24 season is certainly doomed.
