After being almost completely dominated by the New England Patriots for two decades, the AFC East has finally become a competitive division. For the time being, the Pats have lost much of their ferocity, and at least two of their division rivals seem to be getting stronger, but no AFC East team can be called “great.” Last year, during the 2022 NFL season, New England won both of their games against the Jets, lost both against the Buffalo Bills and went 1-1 with Miami. Not too shabby for a team some sources are calling the worst in the AFC East.
New England Patriots: “Worst” Team in Division?
The worst? No, the Patriots aren’t the worst team in their division. That would be the Jets – on paper, anyway. The Jets placed fourth in their division last year, edged out for third by New England. And New England will probably finish third again this year. The infrastructure for another superior offense is coming together for this team (Pro Football Focus rates New England’s offensive line as the best in their division) and once it is all in place, together with some improvements to their defense, Buffalo and Miami are going to have their hands full.
Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne (84) and Jets CB Michael Carter II (30) – Michael Dwyer/AP
There are other reasons, too, that New England can be called a strong football team – reasons not so easily measurable or visible on a stats chart. I won’t detail them now, but the Patriots are definitely more of a threat than their current record suggests, and they’ll become increasingly threatening over the next few seasons. The New England Patriots are brimming with latent potential.
Win/Loss Projections
At the end of the day, though, wins and losses determine who goes to the Super Bowl, nothing else. And unfortunately, I can’t say that I expect the Patriots to fare too well against their division rivals this season. While impossible to predict with any certainty, here are my win/loss projections for the Patriots against their division rivals in the 2023 season:
Week 2, vs. Miami – (L)
Week 3, @ New York (L)
Week 7, vs. Buffalo (L)
Week 8, @ Miami (L)
Week 17, @ Buffalo (L)
Week 18, vs. New York (W)
I’ll admit that I’m playing it safe with these predictions (Week 3 against New York is a wobbler, for sure) – but not too safe. Realistically, New England will probably only win one or two games in their division; three if they have a good year. I do believe that the Patriots are on their way back to the top, but they won’t get there overnight. So, while we can expect them to struggle for a few more seasons as they solidify their team identity, we’ll also see continuous improvement until they’re back to dominating their division (and probably even their conference) at some point within the next three to five years.
Luck, Skill, and a Hard Schedule
New England certainly has the potential to upset the Bills and the Dolphins this season, but if they want to be more than just a divisional spoiler, they’ll need a few strokes of luck to go along with their best possible performance. In terms of the latter, their key players really need to get out there and take control of whatever situation arises on the field. Hopefully, Thornton and company will find ways to break out, as I discuss elsewhere. If this happens, the Patriots might take second place in the AFC East, and with that…who knows? Big surprises aren’t out of the question with this team.
Patriots QB Mac Jones (10) – Bryan Bennett/Getty Images
The Patriots have a tough year ahead of them, that’s for sure. A recent piece from Sharp Football Analysis makes it clear that New England has the hardest strength of schedule in the whole NFL this season. They need to play tough, textbook football every week, consistently. Their final record is going to depend a lot on the extent to which they can function as a cohesive, well-oiled machine (à la Belichick).
Division Overview
The Dolphins will probably win the division, but if not, the Bills will take it again. The Patriots certainly can beat those teams, but it’s a long shot, so I’m calling those four games probable losses for the Pats. As for the Jets, the prediction that they’ll win the AFC East outright seems pretty far-fetched to me. The Patriots won both games against them last season, but this year the Jets will probably win in New York. Even still, I expect New England to win between eight and ten games overall and knock them into last place in the division – again.
