The NFL Draft is somewhat of a Christmas morning for NFL fans. You anticipate for months what your team’s GM, and the front office, will do to make your team Super Bowl contenders, and then on draft night, you are either ecstatic or disgusted. Not much in between, which either way puts a lot of pressure on these rookies. In the next few months, fans get to dream about what their new young studs will do for the organization. The Houston Texans made two of the top three picks in the 2023 NFL Draft but then didn’t choose again until 62. Even with the large gap in between picks two and three, the Texans drafted three starters at key positions.
Heading into the 2023 season, the Houston Texans will be looking for big contributions from very young players. Out of their 22 projected starters on offense and defense, eight of them will be in their second year or rookies. A lot of raw talent that could make or break the season for DeMeco Ryans’ squad. The three rookies I will focus on in this article are the first three selected in this year’s draft.
C.J. Stroud – Quarterback – Selected 2nd Overall
Texans QB C.J. Stroud (7) – Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images
The first question that needs to be asked about C.J. Stroud is whether or not he is the week one starter in Baltimore. My gut says that unless C.J. Stroud shows he is miles ahead of Davis Mills or Case Keenum and balls out of control in the pre-season, the answer will be no. In their first six games, the Texans will play four games against some top-12 defenses from last year. The Texans have their bye week in week seven, so I could see Stroud making his first start in week eight against the Panthers in Carolina as they meet with number one overall pick Bryce Young.
Now what can we expect once he is the starter?
The biggest thing with rookie quarterbacks is, TAKE CARE OF THE BALL. The most successful rookie seasons are always the ones that don’t turn the ball over. Trevor Lawrence threw 17 interceptions during his rookie season. The Jaguars went 3-14. In 2022, he threw eight interceptions, and they went 9-8 and won a playoff game. Dak Prescott threw only four interceptions in his rookie campaign, and the Cowboys went 13-3. Justin Fields threw ten interceptions, in 10 games, in 2021. The Bears were 2-8 in those ten games. You get it.
Stroud only threw 12 interceptions in his 25 games at Ohio State. With 85 touchdowns, a 7:1 TD-to-INT ratio is probably a pretty lofty goal, but if he can take care of the ball, then he will have success. With over 8,000 yards, 85 touchdowns, and a 69 completion percentage, it isn’t hard to see why he was taken number two overall.
If you need more proof, go watch what he did against the best defense in the nation in the College Football Playoff. 348 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions, and gave his team a chance to win it with a 50-yard field goal. Stroud displayed his decision-making, quick release, accuracy, and ability to move around both inside and outside of the pocket on the biggest stage. All things that will be needed at the next level.
This will be a learning year for C.J. There will be ups, and there will be downs, but as long as he can get on the same page as his receivers and get the protection right with his offensive line, I believe Stroud will succeed in this league. He will get the chance to learn from a long-time veteran in Case Keenum, who the Texans signed this off-season for the second stint with the team. Having been in the league for ten years and on seven different teams, his knowledge of NFL offenses and defenses will help Stroud with the transition.
His rookie season might not be as flashy as some, but I feel like Texans fans will be pretty excited about what they got from Ohio State.
Prediction – Starts 11 games – 2,300 yards, 14 TD, 6 INT. Texans go 4-7 in those games.
Will Anderson Jr. – Defensive End – Selected 3rd Overall
Texans DE Will Anderson Jr. (51) – Michael Owens/Getty Images
Quarterbacks get most of the conversation going into drafts. However, I believe the best player going into this draft was Will Anderson Jr. I was expecting the Texans to take him at two and see what fell to them at the 12th pick. The Texans made a big move, moving up to number three overall and giving up a lot, some people say too much, to get Anderson. Whether or not the haul of draft picks was worth it won’t be clear for a few years, but for now, the DeMeco Ryans got a stud defensive end similar to what he had in San Francisco with Nick Bosa.
In the 2022 season, the Texans defense sacked the opposing quarterback 39 times and pressured the quarterback 20.1% of the time, which put them in the bottom half of the league in both categories. DeMeco Ryans’ defense in San Francisco had 44 sacks and pressured the quarterback 22.9% of the time, which made them 10th in sacks. They also blitzed 48 more times than the Texans, who only blitzed more times than the New York Jets. Even with the 49ers blitzing so much, 37 of the 44 sacks were by defensive linemen. Ryans will use blitzing, and stunts, to get one-on-one matchups for Anderson that will give him plenty of opportunities to get to the quarterback.
Going into their rookie season, I feel like expectations are higher for Anderson than for Stroud. He was third overall, but the Texans gave up a lot to get him. Measuring at the combine at 6’ 3.5”, 253 lbs, plus 34.5 career sacks at Alabama, and three years learning under Nick Saban, it isn’t shocking that he was such a highly touted prospect. The Texans’ front office, and new head coach, saw a player that could make an immediate impact and went and got him.
Teams don’t take their time with pass rushers; there is no doubt that Will Anderson Jr’s name will be called with the starters, and he is expected to produce right away. Anderson will also have the benefit of learning under a long-time NFL player Jerry Hughes. Coming into his 14th season, Hughes has 66.5 career sacks and has only missed one game in the last 11 seasons. So, he will be able to teach Anderson how to handle offensive tackles on the field and take care of his body off the field.
I believe Will Anderson Jr. will silence the critics that the Texans gave up too much to trade for him. He will come in and make an immediate impact and be the top pass rusher on a good defense. The ultimate test is right out of the gate, having to chase Lamar Jackson in week one, so Anderson will get an immediate taste of real speed in the NFL. His size, speed, and ability to get the quarterback will shine in Demeco Ryans’ defense, and he will be a candidate for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Prediction – Starts all 17 games – 10.5 sacks, 16 TFL, 1 FF, 1 FR. Defensive Rookie of the Year
Juice Scruggs – Center – Selected 62nd Overall
Former Penn State C Juice Scruggs (70) – Ric Tapia/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Boosting up your offensive line is always a good idea. The Texans already had three first-round picks on their line, highlighted by Laremy Tunsil. They also signed veteran and two-time Super Bowl Champion guard Shaq Mason. The selection of Scruggs completes the offensive line. A team captain at Penn State and the starting center for every game the last two seasons. He was named third-team All-Big Ten following the 2022 season.
The center isn’t as flashy of a pick as a quarterback or an elite pass rusher, but it can be argued to be just as important. The center is usually the leader of the offensive line. He is the one calling out blitzes, and making sure everyone is on the same page while also snapping the ball. Center is the only player on the field that is guaranteed to touch the ball on every play.
Being a rookie, that is going to be a lot of responsibility to take on. The Texans once again have helped out their young starters with the signing of Shaq Mason. While Mason never played center, he has had 115 starts at guard in the regular season and 14 playoff games. He has the experience and knowledge to help Scruggs and second-year guard Kenyon Green make this one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. Knowing who is coming on a blitz or what stunt is coming will slow the game down a bit for Scruggs, who isn’t the quickest center.
A nightmare for quarterbacks is pressure directly up the middle. Collapsing the pocket is always the goal of a defense and is an easy way to blow up any play. Scruggs, measuring at 6’ 3”, 301 lbs, is known for being an immovable object and holding the line to prevent any pressure up the middle. That is very important for a quarterback to be able to step up in the pocket and deliver the ball. Not allowing penetration up the middle will also allow second-year running back Dameon Pierce to find and hit the hole and get to the second level, where he can make explosive plays.
Prediction – Start every game, and help Dameon Pierce run for 1,300 yards and double-digit touchdowns.
The first preseason game is just over three weeks away, and we will get to see these rookies in NFL action for the first time. The practice games will be most valuable for Stroud and Scruggs as they get the protection calls and cadences lined out. At the same time, Will Anderson Jr. will focus on getting into game shape and get a feel for the speed of the NFL. The three rookies will have a large impact on the success of the Houston Texans for the 2023 season and going forward.
See Also – DeMeco Ryans – Houston’s Messiah
