2023 Denver Broncos Division Outlook

After a tremendously disappointing season, the 2023 Denver Broncos are going into this season intending to just be relevant in the division again. After three straight seasons finishing fourth place in the division, it has been a while since Denver could compete at the end of the season.

They set out to put the best roster around Russell Wilson to justify the trade for him and see if he still has anything left in the tank. Trading for Sean Payton and rebuilding their Offensive Line is going to give Wilson the best chance to succeed. If he can get anything back to his Seattle days, Denver has a chance to compete again.

 

Can Denver Actually Win the Division?

The odds are literally stacked against the Denver Broncos when it comes to winning the AFC West. They are currently sitting at +550 odds which are the third-best behind the Chargers and Chiefs. It is hard to see someone else sitting first, considering the Chiefs have won the Division seven straight seasons and Patrick Mahomes has never lost to Denver; there could be a chance.

With Sean Payton coaching the team, it is reasonable to assume a bump in production from Wilson over last season. In his career coaching the Saints, Drew Brees only had three seasons with less than 4,000 yards passing, and 24 TDs was his lowest in that period. Before last season, Wilson only had one season below the 24 TD mark, making it reasonable to assume that Wilson with Payton coaching him could have a big boost in production.

Denver also not only rebuilt but upgraded their Offensive Line. They will be getting Garett Bolles back from injury and signed two of the best linemen in Free Agency Mike McGlinchey and Ben Powers. This line now has a great combination of size, pass blocking, and run blocking at its disposal. At their peak in talent, Denver could have a top 5 Offensive Line and could be a big reason why the offense could be better.

The one pretty consistent thing with the Broncos during this rough patch has been their defense. Over the last nine seasons, Denver’s defense has been one of the better units in the league. While there is a lot of turnover with this unit, the talent is still there to produce at a top-10 rate this season. It would require a lot of “ifs” happening, but a top-10 defense and an improved offense could be enough to give Denver a shot at the division.

However, unfortunately for the Broncos, it does not seem likely for the team to win the division. It would take Wilson to play at an MVP level again and the team to beat the Chiefs. As long as Mahomes and Reid are Chiefs, I do not see the Broncos winning the division.

 

Where do They Stand in the Division?

After Kansas City, this division seems pretty open. The Broncos, Raiders, and Chargers could all finish either second or last this season. For Denver, they match up pretty well with both the Raiders and Chargers this season.

With the Raiders, the Broncos have a clear coaching advantage. Most teams do with Josh McDaniels as the other coach, but the disparity between him and Payton is miles apart. McDaniels has a 17-28 record as a Head Coach, and Payton will be a Hall of Famer when his career is over.

Along with the coaching advantage, the Raiders had one of the league’s worst defenses last season. They gave up 122.8 rushing yards and 242.9 passing yards per game a year ago and did very little this offseason to improve in that area. This could be a season where Denver can finally take advantage of the Raiders’ poor defenses.

I would expect the Broncos to take care of business against the Raiders this season and be ahead of them in the standings. Las Vegas has too many holes on their roster, along with arguably one of the worst coaches in the NFL, for them not to finish last this season.

The tougher task for them this season will be Los Angeles. While the Chargers are a team known for historically underperforming, they have more than enough talent to pose a challenge for Denver. They did not make many big moves, but they did not need to.

At the Quarterback Position alone, it is safe to say that unless Wilson has a major bounce-back season, Herbert is clearly the better player right now. While he has had struggles in his early career winning games, especially key games, Herbert has the numbers and passes the eye test of being an elite QB. Fortunately for Denver, with the upgrade on the Offensive line and Javonte Williams coming back from injury, they may not need Wilson to be elite to beat the Chargers.

The big key for Denver is stopping that pass rush of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. When healthy, they are one of the better pass rush duos in the NFL and are notorious for having some of their best games against Denver. That is exactly why they went out and upgraded at the Offensive Line, and I believe these games are going to be where those moves shine the brightest.

For Denver they have a sort of funny trend going on in this matchup. In the last three seasons, they have split each game, with the home team winning each game. If that trend continues, it may come down to how both teams start the season, and the Chargers may be in trouble there.

Los Angeles will play four 2022 playoff teams in their first six games while having a really early bye week in Week Five. Denver, on the other hand, gets two 2022 playoff teams and some winnable road games to start the season. If Denver handles business early like they should this season, and they can keep splitting this season series, then Denver is in a good spot to finish better than the Chargers.

 

Where They Finish

This may be the optimist in me, but I have Denver finishing second in the division this season. I am not going to make a bold statement saying they will upset the Chiefs, which is the mistake I made last season. However, I do believe they are the better team than the Raiders, and if Sean Payton can get Russell Wilson back to his Seattle days, then the Broncos should beat the Chargers out for second place.

The schedule helps a lot. They get an earl break with some winnable games early and some of those on the road. They also get both of their Chiefs games out of the way before their bye week, with time to make up those games should they lose both.

It may seem crazy considering how they have performed since winning Super Bowl 50, but I really do believe in what Denver did this season, and I have faith in Russell Wilson and Sean Payton to turn it around next season.

 

Division Record: 4-2

This is my bold take on the team. I have them sweeping the Raiders and the Chargers this season. I do have them getting swept by the Chiefs, but those games being early enough in the season, I think, helps Denver out.

I believe they get the first game off of the Raiders, as they are dealing with a new QB in Jimmy Garoppolo. Even though he and McDaniels have a connection from New England, I believe there could be early-season struggles for this team on both sides of the ball. They do not play each other again until the last week of the season, and by then, I believe the Raiders will be eliminated and no longer playing for anything, while Denver could still be fighting for a Wild Card spot.

While I mentioned they have split three straight seasons, and I could see this being the other way and the Chargers sweeping Denver if Russell is what he was last season, I see it going Denver’s way this year. The Broncos get the Chargers on the road after a road game against Houston. A game they most likely win and do not have that much travel in between.

While the Chargers play the Ravens at home, then have to travel to New England, and then come back home for Denver. That is a lot of travel while playing some tough opponents in between, which could set up L.A. to drop that home game to Denver. Then they play the Broncos in Denver after playing in Buffalo the week before. So, scheduling has a lot to do with Denver sweeping, but I also believe the Broncos will have the better team this season as well.

 

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