“We may either fall greatly or succeed greatly; but we can not avoid the endeavor from which either great failure or great success must come.” – Theodore Roosevelt, 1902 State of the Union Address
The 2023 Atlanta Falcons are on the cusp of breaking out of a rebuild, with their biggest unknown being the most critical position in football. The only way the franchise and fans can know for sure is by moving forward one game at a time, and that can feel excruciating. That’s because there’s a renewed feeling around those that closely follow the Falcons: belief. The belief that the Atlanta Falcons have a roster that can lead the team to its first playoff birth in five years.
Sound Investments
Falcons OT Kaleb McGary (76) – Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire
This isn’t the cap-strangled Atlanta Falcons of the past two years. The team entered free agency with approximately $63 million in cap space, the second most in the league. Allowing them to add high-level talent and key additions they haven’t been able to afford in years. The team solidified the OL by bringing back Kaleb McGary on a three-year team-friendly deal and locking up Chris Lindstrom till 2028 with a monster $105 million extension. Rookie Matthew Bergeron looks to take over the vacancy at LG, which means that Atlanta’s best position group from 2022 should be even better in 2023.
The trenches on the other side of the ball also got a much-needed investment during the team’s spending spree. David Oneymata and Calais Campbell join Grady Jarett to form one of the division’s most formidable interior defensive lines. On the back end, the Falcons signed their biggest free agent on defense since John Abraham, Jessie Bates III. Giving AJ Terrell the best safety in his young All-Pro career.
GM Terry Fontenot made a low-risk trade and acquired former number 3 overall pick Jeff Okudah from the Detroit Lions for a 2024 5th-round pick, and with the selection of Clark Phillips III, the Atlanta Falcons could be sitting on one of the most underrated secondaries entering 2023. New DC Ryan Nielsen has talent at all three levels making fans and analysts eager to see how he runs this defense.
Bijan and Co.
Those critical investments allow a team to make a big splash in the draft, and that’s exactly what the Atlanta Falcons did by drafting Bijan Robinson 8th overall, sending the positional value crowd into an absolute frenzy. What seems ill-advised from the outside frankly makes sense for the Falcons based on their plan: to develop Ridder and give him the best-supporting cast they can.
Desmond Ridder to Bijan Robinson at OTAs. pic.twitter.com/NF4U2EfeFT
— Nick Penticoff (@NickPenticoff) June 2, 2023
Drake London is coming off an impressive season where he set the franchise rookie record for receptions. While Kyle Pitts was statistically disappointing last season, those who watched Atlanta saw he was not at fault for the regression. PFF deemed that only 59% of Pitts’s targets were catchable last season, the lowest among all TE, with at least 200 routes in 2022. If he and Ridder can connect, the team will have a chance to be at its best. Sounds nice on paper, but it’s never that easy.
Areas of Concern
This team has holes, and while winning expectations are appropriate, a deep playoff run still feels like a year away. The Falcons lack a true WR2 opposite of Drake London. Free agent signings Scottie Miller and Mack Hollins are respectable depth players, but they aren’t players defenses gameplan around. Adding TE Jonnu Smith will help the passing game, but depth at the WR position will be a legitimate concern in 2023.
Another position group on the Atlanta Falcons facing similar concerns are the linebackers. Fans hope that Kaden Elliss can replicate his 2022 pass-rush production and that Troy Andersen takes that big second-year step, but the group is thin, and both players are still unknowns at this stage. Mykal Walker’s play was inconsistent last season, and the former 4th-round pick is entering a contract season.
The group will have a stout interior defensive line playing in front of them, making their jobs more manageable. Still, the middle of this defense will be a point of emphasis for opposing offenses throughout the season, specifically in the passing game.
Riding with Ridder
Atlanta Falcons Desmond Ridder (9) – Shanna Lockwood/Atlanta Falcons
Truthfully, almost none of this matters in comparison to the development of Desmond Ridder. The quarterback is undeniably crucial, and the team has put all their chips behind the QB from Cincinnati. Ridder is going to define this season for better or for worse. After a pedestrian four-game stretch to close out the season, the young QB gets a shot at becoming the face of the franchise. The weapons and, most importantly, the offensive line are in place to help keep the young QB upright and have a chance at succeeding.
From 2020-2022, many considered the Atlanta Falcons to have one of the worst rosters in football, and in both seasons, the team won seven games. If those teams could amass seven wins, it’s easy to understand why some believe the 2023 Falcons can get to nine-plus win territory. It won’t take exceptional QB play, but that doesn’t mean the team should settle, and that’s the biggest fear many have with Ridder. It’s great to make the playoffs, but to threaten for a deep run; you need a QB that led his offense, not be led by it. These are the same issues that plagued the Tennesse Titans during Aruthr Smith’s tenure as OC.
The 2023 Atlanta Falcons
But that conversation isn’t essential to the 2023 Atlanta Falcons. Their endeavor of evaluating whether or not their young quarterback can become a franchise leader will have its highs and lows, to be sure, but this team is capable of having a winning season in a weak NFC South. The Falcons winning window is starting to crack open, but not enough to feel that comforting breeze.
Wins and losses will be meaningful in the journey ahead, but Desmond Ridder’s development will decide the franchise’s future. The 2023 Atlanta Falcons have the defensive and offensive infrastructure in place to be a fringe playoff team but don’t put expectations beyond that on them, save those for 2024.
